The feature race across the four days at Doncaster is the Group 1 St Leger Stakes on Saturday. The final classic of the flat season should be a cracking race, with some classy horses bidding to add their name to the illustrious list of recent St Leger winners, which includes:
- Kew Gardens (2018)
- Logician (2019)
- Hurricane Lane (2021)
- Eldar Eldarov (2022)
John & Thady Gosden’s Gregory will bid to resume winning ways after disappointing in the Great Voltigeur Stakes last time out, whilst Royal runner Desert Hero could go close after staying on strongly to win the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. The Godolphin blue of Chesspeice finished just a neck behind Desert Hero last time out and will fancy their chances of being involved when it matters here.
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw ELDAR ELDAROV follow up his Royal Ascot win by landing the St Leger with an impressive display. He ran out a comfortable winner over Haskoy (2nd) and New London (3rd), giving trainer Roger Varian a second winner in the race: He has since won the Irish version of the race this season, which is open to horses of any age about 3.
Key Trends
- 4 of the last 12 winners have been favourites/joint favourites, 8 of the last 12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting.
- 7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the St Leger, 8 of the last 12 winners at least placed on their last run before the St Leger, 9 of the last 12 winners had their last run within 65 days.
- 2 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Doncaster, 1 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Doncaster.
- 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 13 furlongs (1m5f) or further, 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 13 furlongs (1m5f) or further.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous flat runs, 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous flat wins.
- 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 109 or higher.
- 9 of the last 12 winners had a least 1 previous win in a group 1-3 race.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win that season, 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 wins that season.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Alexandroupolis
(Aidan O’Brien/Sean Levey)
We start off with one of the outsiders of the field, who is the lowest rated rated horse in the line-up with the least experience to his name also, with just the three career runs so far. A winner over the mile trip at Galway back in September, he then wasn’t seen until April where he lined up in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, which is communally known as a Derby trial, where he finished 3rd, beaten by just under 5 lengths by White Birch. He finished ahead of Espionage on debut, who has since won a Listed contest, which is fairly decent form to the eye, but the son of Camelot hasn’t really backed it up since. He was last seen in the Listed Aer Lingus College Football Classic Vinnie Roe Stakes at Leopardstown in August, which was his first run over the 1m6f trip, where he finished a very remote 6th out of just 7 runners, beaten by 6 lengths. Judging by what he comes up against in this contest on Saturday, it would come as a huge shock should he win, which is a shame as he looked like he could potentially be a classy 3yo judging by his only 2yo start last season.
2. Arrest
(John & Thady Gosden/Frankie Dettori)
The main talking point heading into this contest was what horse would Frankie Dettori ride in his final ever St Leger, and he has decided to side with the one time Derby hope Arrest. The 2nd highest rated horse in the field, who will love the expected softer conditions, it is easy to see why Frankie would have selected to ride him, given his previous form and the fact he is owned by Juddmonte, colours Frankie has won many of top races in, in the past so it would be fitting to bow out of the final UK Classic with a win in these famous colours. Since Frankie has announced he is riding the son of Frankel, plenty of market support has come in for him, which is only natural, the Frankie factor as we all say. The Gosden Colt is a pretty classy sort, coming 3rd on debut behind Nostrum last season, before going on to win a Maiden and Novice contest before going on to come a close up 2nd in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud to end his 2yo campaign. He then hacked up in the Chester Vase Stakes by just under 7 lengths, before going on to go off the market leader for the Derby where he finished a disappointing 10th out of 14 runners, but did sweat badly and loose a show during the race. He then came 5th at Royal Ascot over 1m4f behind King Of Steel before going on to tackle 1m6f for the very first time. He lined up in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury, which can be a St Leger trial, where he made all and won going away, bringing him back to the form we all know he has. That win last time out was pretty impressive, and I think he will be seen to best effect over this trip, plus Frankie can only be a positive booking in his final St Leger, but as he has shown he is prone to playing up and producing a bad run, which isn’t a great thing already only being a 3yo. But he could be one to take very seriously heading into this.
3. Chesspiece
(Simon & Ed Crisford/James Doyle)
A nice looking type for the Crisford yard who is the only runner for Godolphin in this years St Leger, it’s rare to only see one Godolphin horse in this contest, making it extremely rare that Charlie Appleby isn’t training it. But take nothing away from this horse, and I do feel if he was trained by Charlie Appleby he would be much smaller in the betting. He was only purchased by Godolphin this season, and had three runs for his previous owners Rabbah Racing, where he won nicely on debut at Newcastle as a 2yo,before being pitched into a nice Novice event at Newbury where he came 3rd, a race that usually has a few Derby types in it, before going on to win a Handicap by just over a length off the mark of 96. That win earnt him a new mark of 101, and new owners at that as Godolphin swooped in to buy the horse. He has had the three runs for connections, a very decent 3rd in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, his first run over the 1m6f trip, which shows connections had this race lined up in their plans, before going on to win the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton in June, with Sea Of Roses a length and a quarter in behind. His run last time was probably a career best so far, where he just fell short to loose and come 2nd by a next at Glorious Goodwood, a race won by Desert Hero, Which was the Group 3 John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes. That earnt him a little move in the mark again, giving him the career best of 109. I think he is still improving, and this sort of trip will really suit him, as connections have looked like they have planned this route since they picked him up. James Doyle has been booked, who has shown with his Group 1 winning antics on Warm Heart this season, that he is an excellent jockey who always does well in Group 1 contests. I feel Chesspiece is going a little under the radar for this contest on Saturday.
4. Continuous
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
What seems to be the first string for the Aidan O’Brien team, this is one of four runners he looks to potentially have line up in the final classic of the season at Doncaster on Saturday. This horse has somewhat suddenly sprung on the scene for the St Leger with his last few runs, where he came 2nd in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal meeting in June behind King Of Steel, which is very good form given KOS is potentially a Group 1 horse, before going on to win the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York with Castle Way 4 lengths in behind. The one thing heading into this contest that does play out of his favour is the trip and question marks on it for him. He is yet to run over the 1m6f trip, and in previous renewals of this race any horse that hasn’t tried this trip as yet could come unstuck due to previous trends of the race, as it is quite a testing race especially given the time of year as the ground will most likely have a little juice in it, really making it a stamina riddled test at times. He is a classy sort though however, and was a Group 3 winner as a 2yo before going on to be pitched into the Derby in France picture which didn’t work out unfortunately, however he still seems to be learning judging by his romp last time out at York. As we all know Aidan O’Brien is the master at getting horses to improve race on race, and if he does handle the extra 2 furlongs for this in what is expected to be softer conditions (Last two wins have been on good to firm) then he deserves to be one of the main protagonists heading into this.
5. Denmark
(Aidan O’Brien/Daniel Tudhope)
When I saw that this horse was entered into this race I was slightly surprised given that he only ran last week, in a Handicap where he finished a fairly remote 3rd, getting sent off as the market leader. Like a few of these, especially out of the Aidan O’Brien runners where he was a nice looking 2yo sort, who only had the two starts which was a winner and a 2nd over in France, and it does take a very good effort to win on debut as a youngster. He was then thrown into the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes where he finished a remote 5th beaten by a fair way. He then wasn’t seen for over 140 days where he was markedly stepped up in trip and dropped in class, where he lined up in the Melrose Handicap where he came a very decent 2nd behind one of the fancied runners in this Middle Earth. He was then quickly turned out where he finished a slightly disappointing 3rd last weekend, looking a real difficult ride for his then rider James Doyle, taking a keen hold, throwing his head about and hanging left on occasions. He is the outsider of the field and for good reason, it would come as a huge shock should he land a race of this nature given his un-gamely running style.
6. Desert Hero
(William Haggas/Tom Marquand)
It would be incredibly fitting should the St Leger prize go to the King and Queen in their first season of flat racing ownership, and it would be the first royal St Leger winner since 1977 with Dunfermline who was trained by Dick Hern and ridden by Willie Carson. Although it would be very fitting for racing if the William Haggas trained horse was to win the final classic of the season, but I do genuinely think he arrives here with an excellent chance given the prices, looking like one of those horses still on the improve, who could get better the further in trip he goes. He had the three runs as a 2yo, a winner on debut, 3rd behind Silver Knott in the Solario Stakes before going on to land a Novice contest with absolute ease at Redcar over 1m1f on heavy ground for his final start of the season. He was well fancied for the London Gold Cup Heritage Handicap where he was sent off favourite after being off the track for 208 days, with the market support suggesting he is a 3yo to keep an eye on for the season ahead, but did finish 8th looking like he very much needed the run. The market support next time out at the Royal meeting didn’t come, as he was sent off a double figure price in the King George V Stakes Handicap where he won by a head, with the winning margin not telling the whole story. He then took the step up in class in his stride next time out at Glorious Goodwood, where he beat Chesspiece in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, staying on superbly all the way to the line when the runner up came to challenge. The keys with him for me was 1. How he stayed on stoutly last time in testing conditions, and 2. Ground conditions, a winner on good, soft and heavy conditions in the past, the expected softer conditions on Saturday will not be an issue as his previous form shows. One slight little downfall is the fact he hasn’t run over the 1m6f trip as yet, but his running style would suggest that shouldn’t be much of an issue however. Tom Marquand has ridden him the last three times, including that Royal Ascot triumph, and Tom is riding better than most this season as he seems to get the most out of his horses in the big moments at this stage.
7. Gregory
(John & Thady Gosden/Kieran Shoemark)
Another big question that could be hanging over this race on Saturday is why has Frankie decided not to ride the horse he won the Queens Vase on at the Royal meeting. That could ultimately stem down to the ground and whether he thinks the lightly raced Gregory might not act on the expected softer conditions. All of his four runs have been on Good or good to firm conditions, but the one main thing that plays in his favour is the fact he has run and won at the 1m6f trip, so we know he is very much a stayer and could be a classy one in the making. Unlike most of these he wasn’t raced as a 2yo, and was pitched straight into a race over 1m3f on debut at Haydock before going on to win a Listed contest at Goodwood. He was then purchased for a fairly large fee before the Queens Vase, where he was sent off the short-priced evens favourite, to which he won by just under 2 lengths. Last time out he was dropped in trip to 1m4f in the Great Voltigeur Stakes, where he finished 3rd by just under 5 lengths, given a ride as if connections were seeing if he has speed in the locker, after being kept at the back and given to much to do in the closing stages. He finished 3rd in the end looking a bit babyish still, so that will shape him up well for this as he is still a work in progress, with Kieran Shoemark stepping in for a nice ride in a classic Group 1 contest on Saturday. Question marks very much on the ground with him however, but he will certainly outstay most of these should it come down to it.
8. Middle Earth
(John & Thady Gosden/Oisin Murphy)
The third of three runners for the Gosden team, Middle Earth arrives into this race at the top end of the market but does have a little bit to do in terms of ratings. Very much like Gregory, the son of Roaring Lion comes into this race with just the four runs to his name, all being since turning 3, having not run as a 2yo. Finishing runner up on both of his first two starts at Haydock and Kempton, before going on to beat Naqeeb in a Novice contest at Newmarket, who has since won a very decent and valuable handicap at Haydock who is now rated 104, so that form does hold up pretty well at this stage. Most definitely the best piece of form to date for Middle Earth was last time out at York for the Ebor meeting, where he was sent off the joint favourite for the Melrose, a race that is a decent enough trial for the St Leger. Now that was over 1m6f, the same trip as the St Leger so we all know he can stay, however the softer conditions like a few of these are a little questionable, but he was a good to soft winner at Newmarket on his 3rd career run when winning. He for me is the most interesting runner in this contest, as he was a decent winner of the Melrose last time, but is yet to run in any form of Group race, so we are unsure on where his limitations lie in-terms of ability, he will have to step up his form to a whole new level to land a Group 1 contest of this nature.
9. Tower Of London
(Aidan O’Brien/Jim Crowley)
The last of a platoon of runners for the Aidan O’Brien team, he arrives here in very good form of late, winning two of his last four runs. Winning over a mile on his debut at Leopardstown, he then lined up in the Group 2 Juvenile Stakes where he finished last of five runners behind the winner Auguste Rodin. He was then chucked into the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown for his first run of the season as a 3yo, finishing 6th beaten by just under 8 lengths, before going on to win the Listed King George V Cup and Ulster Derby at Down Royal, winning that with ease by just under 5 lengths. Those two wins were decent performances, and he has run at the St Leger type of trip, which obviously plays very much into his strengths, but was beaten in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes last time when sent off the odds on favourite, but Ryan Moore did drop his whip at a bad stage in the race which obviously didn’t help. That performance last time has probably made him a bit of a forgotten force heading into this, and deservedly so as the race last time was one he should have won. It would be quite interesting to see what price he would have been in the market on Saturday had he won last time, I guarantee he would be a lot shorter and it would have given Ryan Moore a real headache on deciding who to ride come Saturday. Jim Crowley is booked to ride, which could turn out to be a very nice spare booking for him. I feel he could be one going slightly under the radar heading into the feature contest on Saturday.
Big-Race Verdict
It’s a race that could arguably lack the real star quality going forward, but I think it is a very intriguing race all the same where most if not all of these could be good enough to win it. Chesspiece arrives into the race under most peoples radar, and judging on his run last time he will love the trip and conditions, and could still be improving with each passing run at these staying trips. The fact Godolphin picked him up mid season does speak for something, as they rarely seem to do that, so he might be worth siding with at a bigger price for recent Group 1 winning James Doyle. However my main selection for the race would be Desert Hero, who like Chesspiece will very much like these conditions, and the manner he won last time out will suggest this step up in trip to 1m6f from 1m4f will suit, and could bring a little more improvement out of him. He’s the one to side with for me, with the in-form Tom Marquand booked up to ride, Tom could land his 2nd St Leger in just four years, this time for the King and Queen.
SELECTION: Desert Hero – To Win (5/1 generally) & Chesspiece EW (12/1 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 3.45pm Thursday 14th September*
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