The Group 1 Sussex Stakes is the feature contest over a mile for the second day of the Goodwood Festival, and is one of the most important races over the mile of the whole flat season. Many top class horses have won the race in previous years, with the likes of Baaeed, Kingman and Frankel being just a few on the excellent role of honour for this illustrious Group 1 contest.
Jake Russell (@JakeRuss1000) talks us through the statistics and trends for the race, as well as talking through each runner of the excellent Group 1 contest.
Odds correct at time of posting – 4pm 31st July
Race Trends + Statistics
- 6 of the last 12 winners were aged 3, with the rest being aged 4, 5 and 7.
- 7 of the last 12 winners were favourites, with 11 of the past 12 winners being top 3 in the market (Here Comes When the only exception – Who was 20/1)
- 7 of the last 12 winners won on their previous start before the Sussex Stakes, with 12 of the last 12 winners having their last run within 43 days.
- 4 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Goodwood, 3 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Goodwood.
- 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 119 or higher.
- 8 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous Group 1 win.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 8 furlongs, 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over 8 furlongs.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least two runs that season.
Key Runners
Paddington
Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore (1/2 Best Price)
One of the most impressive horses this season, starting off in Handicap company over in Ireland, before stepping up in class markedly to land the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas, and has not looked back since then. He was an easy 2 length winner of the Irish Guineas, and then had to prove that was no fluke in the St James’s Palace Stakes at the Royal meeting, where he duly obliged by winning with ease by just under 4 lengths with 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean back in 2nd. Then there was a matter of the Coral Eclipse at Sandown where it was a step up in trip for 10 furlongs for the very first time, taking on experienced middle distance runner Emily Upjohn. It was a battle for the ages, where the two locked horns down the Sandown straight, before Paddington asserted in the closing stages to win, always doing enough by half a length. He does have a high head carriage when running, but that doesn’t seem to deter him in the slightest, as he seems to just keep winning no matter what race he runs in. I think he is just brilliantly versatile, whether it is over a mile or anything up to 1m4f, I think he will be very hard to beat no matter what race he lines up in. He is a fabulous racehorse, and his name really captures the imagination of the racing public, especially the younger horse fans, which is something the sport needs more of. He will be incredibly hard to beat in this, taking his tally to four Group 1 wins in a row. I can’t wait to see him strut his stuff once again on the racetrack, over a mile.
Inspiral
John & Thady Gosden and Frankie Dettori (4/1 Best Price)
Another fascinating filly to take on Paddington, and although Emily Upjohn is classy in her own right, she was running at an indeciduate trip, which Inspiral is not, the mile trip is very much her bag. Usually I would be all over Inspiral, no matter what race she runs in, as she is a criminally underrated Group 1 performer. She ran a cracker last time out to come 2nd in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, where she was beaten by Triple Time by just a neck. That was her first run in 248 days, and given she is a 4yo now that run would really set her up nicely for the rest of the season ahead. Her performance in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last season was breath-taking, on again her first start of the season, so I think these early races are the ones where she tends to run best in, especially on the better ground, but she has won on good to soft conditions previously which was in France, which does tend to be softer than described. She is however 5lb’s lower in the ratings compared to Paddington and does have to give him 4lb’s due to his age allowance, but most conditions will suit her and she could provide an excellent test to one of the up and coming stars in racing. She has proven before that she is a top Group 1 performer so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her run well in this.
Aldaary
William Haggas and Jim Crowley (12/1 Best Price)
A horse that is quite hard to gauge heading into this contest, he is very lightly raced since his Balmoral Handicap win at Ascot in October 2021, he has only had the three runs since that win. That included a Listed win at Haydock over the mile, before going on to finish 4th in a Group 3 contest at Newmarket. Which wasn’t a great performance on paper as he should have been winning the race, however it was his first run in 420 days, so would have been a pipe opener for potentially bigger things to come. He was well fancied to win the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot last time out, but was firmly put in his place by Master Of The Seas who finished 4 lengths ahead of him that day, with no real excuses, as conditions and trip were no problem for him. Master Of The Seas is a pretty decent performer, but not really a Group 1 horse so I struggle to see how he could land a Group 1 of this nature, especially against two real Group 1 performers. He is lightly raced however and might not have reached his ceiling as yet, but he is quite a fair way lower in the ratings compared to the main two protagonists, but has to give Inspiral 3lb’s and Paddington 7lb’s due to sex and age allowance. This is a real stiff task for the William Haggas runner.
Facteur Cheval
Jerome Reynier and Maxime Guyon (20/1 Best Price)
The only French raider in this contest, that makes it slightly more difficult to gauge his form, unless you know or watch a fair bit of French racing. His last win came in the form of a Group 3 contest on the very heavy conditions at Saint-Cloud in October of last year, and has since been running in some pretty decent contests, taking a step up the ladder in Grade with each race. His run last time out was arguably a career best, when finishing just a head 3rd behind Light Infantry and Anmaat in the Group 1 Prix d’Isahan at Longchamp, not quite seeing it home. He has a fair bit to do on the ratings, and like Aldaary has to give the main two in the market plenty of weight, but should the ground conditions get any softer, he will be trundling through the mud nicely as he is very much used to those conditions over in France.
Chindit
Richard Hannon and Pat Dobbs (28/1 Best Price)
A real likeable sort who seems to be the flag bearer for the Hannon yard, he always seems to run well, and the older he gets the more consistent he is. This will be his first run for new connections, as this will most likely be the last season we see him in training before heading to stud, which was one of the main reasons he was purchased no doubt. A winner of the Listed Queen Anne Trial Stakes at Ascot in May, he then went on to run in the Group 1 Lockinge at Newbury, where he finished a length and a half second to Modern Games, which was a very good performance given the strength of the race. He is a multiple Group 2 winner but has shown over the years he might just lack the Group 1 quality, but it has been said that this race is the main target for his season, missing the royal meeting in the process to head to Glorious Goodwood. He like the rest of the older horses in this contest has to give a chunk of weight to the main two in the market, which does make this task a little tricky for him. But he will arrive at this race fresh, however the ground conditions may ever so slightly go against him on the day.
Charyn
Roger Varian and David Egan (40/1 Best Price)
The runner for me that has it all to do on form and ratings, he does get 7lb’s from the older horses, and is rated the same as most of them, but I just feel his form this season is a little way off the rest of these. Saying that he has run in some very good races this season, running in both the UK and Irish 2000 Guineas, as well as a good 3rd in the St James’s Palace Stakes at the Royal meeting and the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville last time, but was well beaten by over 10 lengths. Although coming 3rd to him at Ascot, only beaten by 4 lengths, Paddington is still improving at the rate of knots, so I just can’t see a way where he reverses the form. However should he be dropped in class further on in the season, it would not surprise me seeing him getting his head in front, I just think this race will be far to tricky for him to win, and given the six runners, most bookies will only pay the usual 2 places for the each way market.
Big-Race Verdict:
It’s a boring final verdict I know, But I really just can not see past the wonderful Paddington, who has really blossomed this season. Whether it be over a mile, 1m2f or even 1m4f I just can’t see him getting beat this season, and although we are obviously yet to see him over the long trip of 1m4f, which may not even happen, I just think he is brilliant the way he goes about his business. He has come from strength to strength this season, and although the form of his Coral Eclipse was let down by Emily Upjohn in the King George over the weekend, I just can’t see a world where Paddington doesn’t win. Also Emily Upjohn can put in a disappointing performance on one occasion before going out again to win next time out, so keep an eye on her. Due to just the six runners heading to post, it isn’t worth picking out an each way selection, therefore the play for me would be Paddington and Inspiral in a forecast. But just sit back and enjoy the race unfold.
SELECTION – Paddington to win – Also Paddington and Inspiral in the forecast.
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