A week of two halves but, thankfully the first half of the week was strong enough to outweigh the losses over the weekend resulting in a profit for Week 5 of £561 which brings me up to a cumulative profit of £3444 in this six months’ challenge to win £25K.
Monday, April 26th
Horseracing
A nice start to the day as my early-season bet on Kauto Star to end the season as the highest-rated horse in the country (£200 at 6/5) was confirmed in my William Hill account so I was £140 up (I also had £50 ew on Voy Por Ustedes and Tartak in the same market hence just £140 up) before I even started looking at today’s action. Monday during the first half of the season means Windsor evening meetings galore and one thing I have learned form following these meetings closely is to take the advice of Deep Throat to the Washington Post reporters in All The President’s Men – Follow The Money! It never ceases to amaze me how on-course bookies at Windsor survive as, every year, well-backed favourite after well-backed favourite seems to go in and especially if trained by Richard Hannon so I blindly decided before racing started that I was going to follow the money and ended up with three winners and the best part of £700 up backing all three of Hannon’s winners. This also followed on from messing about in afternoon finding solid place-only options with a good recent run on their last start and especially in maiden races where I also made a profit.
Snooker
Even though The Rocket took out Williams 13-10, it was the Welshman’s top break of 115 that was the highest of the match and that was all I was really interested in having taken 2/1 to a stake of £150 that Williams would record the high-break of the game. He made me sweat though as left it to the 21st frame of the 23 played so he nicked it late on. One of my outright bets, Mark Selby, breezed through the second round but my main outright interest, Ding Junhui, played like he had his hands tied in the final session losing out 13-10 to Sean Murphy so gave £200 back there.
Tennis
Carl knows his darts and he’s not too bad either on tennis especially for the clay court season where he feels he has an edge and he texted through that he liked Isner to beat Zevellos in the first round of the Rome Masters. I’ve never heard of either of them, well Isner very slightly, but Carl’s advices are usually on what he thinks are solid favourites so it caught my eye he went for the outsider here so I placed £75 at 11/8 on the big serving American (I did watch the final set to note he was a big serving American). It was tight but Isner came through in the end in front of crowd of what genuinely could not have been more than 25 people but he really should have won 2-0 as blew nine break points in the opening set which he lost.
DAILY RETURNS: +£1103
Tuesday, April 27th
Horseracing
I had enjoyed a good day yesterday and the sun was out so I just fancied sitting down in the garden in front of my TV, laptop and Racing Post and have a punting day and was disappointed not to finish up in front having had a few quid on Binnion Bay who won at 25/1 amongst the many bets (only a £15 saving interest given his love for the course), mainly trying to find solid place horses. Unfortunately, it was poor staking as my two biggest bets went down notably £175 place-only bet on Gra Adhimhar at 4/5. It had crossed my mind beforehand to ask whether I really wanted to go bigger on a Jamie Spencer-ridden horse as he can seriously mess up on hold-up horses on occasions but I was doing nicely at the time so went with it only for him to get the worst ride of the afternoon going for a non-existent gap up the inner. Overall, it was a slight losing day on the horses but nothing serious but I am kicking myself for not having a small saving interest on Shavansky at Nottingham at 28/1 as I had it my head Rod Millman gets his horses ready for early meetings at that track but when I looked at his course stats it didn’t seem to bear that out. I was praying he had been beaten in the photo and Betfair suggested he had been nosed out so the air went seriously blue when he was called the winner.
Snooker
After his heroics to beat Higgins in the second round, I didn’t fancy Steve Davis to give Robertson much of a game once they got into the meat of the action but I did have a gut fancy he could get off to a flying start with his confidence high and felt 5/1 about him leading after four frames was just too big a price so placed £65 on that eventuality and £35 on the tie at 11/4. Robertson 4-0 Davis at the first break – I will be pleased when Davis finally exits this competition the dough he has cost me this tournament. I also played in the Dott-Allen quarter final as felt Dott was too big at 7/4 having dismantled a class act in Maguire in the second round so had £150 to win at 7/4 and also £100 at 10/11 on over 21.5 frames as advised by Adrian Humphries. To say I wasn’t best pleased when he went 4-0 down was an understatement as he played the first session with an ear infection but, once recovered from that, he bounced back to level the day at 8-8. In fact, given how well he was queuing when still behind in the evening section, I took the 28/1 to the £15 going on Betfair to win the tournament and also took the only tenner available at 9/1 about him reaching the final plus £100 on Dott -2.5 frames at 10/11 when he was 7-5 down. Shame there wasn’t more as I would have gone in bigger at those prices if given the choice.
Tennis
Carl got in touch with two fancies and both came good with Wawrinka beating Melzer losing just three games (£100 at 5/4 on winning 2-0) and Bolleli beating Greul (£100 at 8/11) which he managed in straight sets. With Carl’s confidence up, I will be looking to follow him for the rest of this tournament.
Football
Having successfully backed Bayern Munich to beat Lyon in the first leg of the Champions league semi-final last week, given how well they have played away from home in this tournament, I wanted to be with them again this time at 19/10 so had £100 on to win with a £50 saver on the draw as I just couldn’t see Lyon having the class to beat them even on home soil and so it proved as it was one-way traffic with Bayern winning 3-0.
DAILY RETURNS: +£202
Wednesday, April 28th
Horseracing
I was flying out to Spain again today for five days in the sun (I try to get out 5-6 times a year) so needed to get my bets on before I set off and fancied four horses at Ascot’s opening Flat Meeting of the season, they being Akmal in the Sagaro Stakes, Mon Cadeaux in the Listed sprint, Aviate in the fillies’ race and King Of Dixie in a conditions race. Akmal was a disaster as I blew £200 on him, £150 of that to place at 11/10 as I felt that being such a genuine horse, he just had to run well and that his run over 1m4f in the John Porter Stakes was no more than a prep for this but he pulled far too hard and was beaten by the home turn. I also went bigger on the place than for a win in the case of Mon Cadeaux who went down in my note book as a horse to follow this season after catching me eye at Salisbury last year and his third placing netted me a small profit as did a £100 bet at Evens on King Of Dixie without Cityscape in the conditions race. In fact, he even turned over the odds-on favourite which had me cursing to an extent as even when I back a horse place-only, I feel I should have at least a little something to win the race. Aviate was my biggest winner as she easily did the business (£180 at 7/4) for Henry Cecil who has no peers when it comes to training fillies. The yard won the race last year, the vibes I were getting were positive and the form of her only win was working out well so I was pretty confident she would win and this is a filly going places. Ponty wasn’t so successful shipping a few quid but overall a £235 profit on the afternoon.
Snooker
Good old Graham Dott. Not only does he come from 12-10 behind to win 13-12 but he also landed me the candy on the handicap bet with a 2.5 frames start and obviously the Over 21.5 frames bet also came up landing me £359 in total.
Football
To my mind Barcelona were the best team in Europe by some margin so believed they could overturn the 3-1 first leg deficit against Inter Milan and staked £120 for them to qualify at 6/4. It seemed inconceivable to me they would not be in the final given the way they took Arsenal apart when they needed to at home but although they won on the night, Inter restricted them to just one goal so they crashed out and my £120 went with them. I wouldn’t want to call the final between Inter and Bayern except that it will be tight so many play the draw and go under on the goals.
Tennis
With Carl’s confidence high, he got in touch with two more bets today, both outsiders which is unusual for him suggesting Wawrinka to beat Berdych (£75 at Evens) and Ljubicic to beat Almagro (£75 at 11/8). He didn’t see quite so confident so I reined back the stakes a little which proved a bad move as both got the job done, Wawrinka in a final set tie break that went into extra time after going a set down.
DAILY RETURNS: +£644
Thursday, April 29th
Politics
It’s the General Election next week if you didn’t realise and I do enjoy election night but will be glad when all the campaigning is finally off my screen. I have no strong political allegiance and my view was and still is that Lib Dems rollercoaster is finally starting to wane as the first live debate slowly evaporates out of voters’ conscious and, with Gordon Brown trying his best to single handidly lose the election by meeting the general public and had an absolute Gary Glitter with the Rochdale bigot, it struck me that 10/11 about a Tory majority was only going to keep on shortening and looked by far the most likeliest outcome so I went in with a £300 wager and, as long as David Cameron doesn’t say anything too stupid in the next week, it is a bet I will be very disappointed I will not see a return on.
Football
With Liverpool just 1-0 down from the first leg in their Europa League semi-final, I fancied them fairly strongly to come through the tie and qualify at Anfield not because I had a view they had suddenly become a good team but, having seen Atletico Madrid a few times this season, I knew they were only moderate so had £175 at 5/4 about Liverpool going through. All was going swimmingly when they went 2-0 up in Extra Time but a late-ish Diego Forlan goal to which they couldn’t respond killed them off. Benitez out! He’s bloody hopeless.
Cricket
The 20-20 World Cup starts tomorrow so I rang up two of my followers for their suggested bets and between Charlie and Paul they came up with the West Indies as value at 12/1 in the outright market, Gambhir to be the top Indian batsman at 5/2 and Warner to be the top Australian batsman at 11/4 so I placed £100 on all three.
Golf
Both Woods and Mickelson were in action at the Quail Hollow Championship but I took them both on with the straighter-hitting Westwood over 72 holes at 11/10 in both match bets on what is a fairly tight course placing £125 on each bet. The straight hitting angle apart, I also felt Mickelson might suffer some reaction to his Masters win on his previous start and Woods’ putting was just plain short of match practice at Augusta.
DAILY RETURNS: -£175
Friday, April 30th
Snooker
Mixed emotions at Dott beat Selby in the semi-final as I was on both for the title but Selby was twice a bigger winner for me though I would have preferred Dott of the pair to beat Robertson in the final as he has been there twice before. Dott’s reaching the final netted me £90 but that was basically offset by my £75 stake on Selby for the championship struck at the start so no real gain there.
Tennis
After a day off, Carl was back in touch to say he felt Sam Stosur had far too much for Li Na in the clay court event in Stuttgart so had £100 on at 8/11. I have no idea of the score but noted there was an extra £72 in my Betfair account so hats off to Carl for a very good week on his part putting up 5-5.
DAILY RETURNS: +£87
Saturday, May 1st
Horseracing
2000 Guineas day and sad to report I blew a monkey, £300 of it on Elusive Pimpernel to place in the big race. No excuses as far as I could see though. I have to say though this was the first big race in over 30 years of following racing when I had never heard of the winner beforehand. Judging by his SP, neither had many others. My other main interest was on the Palace House Stakes where I fancied Amour Propre to win the race for the second year running so had £100 at 11/4 and I also just had a gut fancy that first time out could be the time to catch Spin Cycle so went with a £50 each-way wager at 16/1 on Bryan Smart’s sprinter but both were hard at work with just under 2f to race and never looked likely to get in a serious blow. Being out in Spain on a golfing break for five days meant I couldn’t seriously look at the other races so was restricted to just the two races where I did not have need to have too much of a study up.
Football
Matt got in touch to say he really liked Espanyol to beat Valencia so I went with my usual £130 on his advices at 15/8 after he had given a strong argument on the strength of the Espanyol’s home performances and the weakness of Valencia away from home but, on this occasion, the away team pulled a rabbit out of the hat to win 2-0. Matt has deliberately been quieter of late as the season draws to an end as funny results can occur so I imagine after this weekend that will be his lot until the new season. More annoying was that I lost £150 on Stirling to beat Brechin. One of my golfing buddies whilst I was out in Spain got a call from a Scottish friend who told him Brechin had eight first-teamers out so Stirling were knocking value at Evens especially as a win here would have sewn up the league for them so I went along with it. 1-0 after 9 minutes – great. 1-1 at half-time, not so great. Stirling player sent off shortly after half-time – disaster. End result 1-1, Muir’s money down the drain.
DAILY RETURNS: -£780
Sunday, May 2nd
Horseracing
The 1000 Guineas went almost as bad for me as the 2000 Guineas as my £200 place bet on Music Show failed to yield a return which was particularly annoying as she won the race on her side of the track only for those to race up against the rail to have a massive advantage. What a joke for a Classic. If those bods at Racing For Change want to do anything to help the sport, perhaps they should start looking at providing fair conditions for all horses rather than changing odds to decimals and trying to mess up a racing calendar that works ideally as it is. It left a nasty taste in my mouth as I reckon Music Show may well have even won if it was level playing field. My other bet on the day after the rain started to fall was on Pipette (£100 e/w at 16/1) who Tom Segal also put up and Cameron had been touting me for a couple of weeks and I felt the rain would bring her stamina into play but she was another to be drawn out of things so a £400 loss on the day.
Golf
A slight profit on my two match bets as Westwood beat Woods (missed the cut….you have got to laugh!) but failed to beat Mickelson over 72 holes who surpassed my expectations by finishing second but nothing to shout about. This was the day however when Rory McIlroy stamped himself on the world scene as a top ten player shooting 62 to win by four shots giving another win on the PGA Tour to a European. To be frank, I can see only way the Ryder Cup is going this year as the European team are much stronger, have a point to prove after last time when the yanks played out of their skins for their Captain, Paul Azinger, whereas our boys didn’t feel the same way about Faldo (our big three of Westwood, Harrington and Garcia also failed to show up), it is back on home soil, and there is no way Monty is going to lose as captain especially on home soil as he is Mr Ryder Cup and this is effectively his Major. 8/11 is a very fair price indeed. In my opinion the best Captain wins the Ryder Cup and I believe Monty will be an exceptional Captain.
Football
Not a good weekend for Matt (and therefore me) as his advice of Catonia to beat Juventus (£130 at 5/2) failed to come to fruition as they drew 1-1. Again, it was a sound argument but not to be.
Snooker
Dott vs Robertson in the World Final and although Dott was already a winner for me having taken big prices to very small stakes available, I went in again staking £300 at 5/4 as I felt he would out-grind the Australian and was simply playing the better snooker of the pair anyway. In my mind he should have been favourite but I soon started to change my tune when I watched the evening session where Stevie Wonder would have more idea where the pockets were. It was a truly awful session for Dott and miracle stuff he picked up two frames in the evening to only be 9-7 down after the first day having led 5-3 at one point where he looked exceptionally tired.
DAILY RETURNS: -£520
WEEKY RETURNS: +£561
CUMULATIVE RETURNS (after 5 weeks): +£3444