Top tipster Andrew Mount loves using statistics and trends to find some big winners and he’s taken a look at this weekend’s Tingle Creek Chase. Check out his views and take advantage of £10 RISK-FREE BET WITH THE TOTE
TINGLE CREEK CHASE KEY TRENDS
Starting Price
19 of the 20 winners this century came from the first three in the betting. Those who were fourth or higher in the betting were just one from 80, with Dodging Bullets, successful at 9-1 in 2014 hardly the biggest of shocks.
Trainers
Paul Nicholls is ten from 35 since 1999 for a profit of £8.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. His last-time out winners were six from 12 in the same period for a profit of £13.17.
Age
Horses aged ten or older are just one from 20 this century (Moscow Flyer in 2004) but many were big prices and the expected number of winners was only 1.47.
Running style
16 of the last 20 winners raced prominently, two made the running and only two (from a sample of 56) were described as ‘held up’ and one of those came in the year 2000 when the race was run at Cheltenham.
MAIN CONTENDERS
ALTIOR lost his unbeaten record over fences when runner-up to Cyrname over an extended 2m5f at Ascot on his reappearance last term but has won all 15 chase starts over shorter trips. He comfortably accounted for Sceau Royal in Grade 2 company at Newbury in February but missed Cheltenham and if his powers are on the wane, it’s first-time out that he might prove vulnerable. He won this race in 2018 and landed the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at this meeting in 2016.
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BREWIN’UPASTORM was sent off at just 6/1 for last season’s Arkle on the back of wins at Carlisle and Taunton but he unseated Richard Johnson four from home. He failed to settle when trailing home last of six behind Imperial Aura at Carlisle on his comeback but the stiff 2m4f wouldn’t have suited and he’s best judged on his record over 2m-2m2f of 14111U, improving to 1111 on right-handed tracks.
He’s yet to score above class 3 level biut has placed form over hurdles in Grade 1 company and he could yet make his mark at this level.
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Paul Nicholls has won this race on ten previous occasions and GREANETEEN impressed with his attitude when coming from off the pace to overhaul the front-running Moonlighter in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his comeback.
That took his chase record to 11141 (4-5), with the defeat coming in last season’s Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival where a blad blunder two from home all but ended his chances. His sole run here resulted in an unplaced effort but that came over hurdles on his British debut and he’s since gone four from four on right-handed tracks. The patient tactics employed in his two most recent starts are a concern, though it’s far from impossible that he’ll be ridden more handily this time.
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Reigning Champion Chaser POLITOLOGUE, a stablemate of Greaneteen, won this race by half a length from Fox Norton back in 2017 having landed the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance. He was only fifth in last season’s renewal but that run, just 20 days after his reappearance Cheltenham second to Defi Du Seuil, probably came too soon. His Champion Chase win came on the back of a 95-day break after which his trainer said ‘He’s brilliant when fresh.’ His seasonal debut record since joining Paul Nicholls stands at U1112 (3-5) and it’s hard to believe he’s only a nine-year-old as he seems to have been around forever.
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ROUGE VIF was a hugely impressive winner in handicap chase company at Cheltenham’s October meeting but the Harry Whittington yard has been quiet of late, failing to notch a winner from 24 runners from mid-November (prior to racing on December 2). He missed Cheltenham’s November meeting because of unsuitably soft going and the rain forecast for Friday/Saturday will not aid his cause. His chase record on officially good to soft or faster going reads 111 (3-3), as compared to 423 (0-3) on anything slower.
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CASTLEGRACE PADDY, the sole Irish runner, has a great record when fresh, with November’s comeback success at Navan taking his record over obstacles when rested for more than eight weeks to 111141 (5-6). The sole defeat came when 66-1 in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown om his belated reappearance last term. He’s only had 27 days to get over that reappearance effort and could prove vulnerable if lining up here rather than waiting for Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting.
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BIG-RACE VERDICT
Unless it comes up heavy, those near the head of the betting look set to dominate. Nicky Henderson’s Altior has won all 20 starts over obstacles when faced with a trip of 2m-2m2f and he heads the betting at very short odds.
However, it won’t be plain sailing for the ten-year-old as he faces a tough challenge from the Paul Nicholls-trained pair POLITOLOGUE and Greaneteen. The absence of both Altior and Chacun Pour Soi made life much easier for Politologue in the Champion Chase but he never saw a rival in coming home almost ten lengths clear and he’s always dangerous when fresh. He looks the value alternative to the favourite.
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