Once the first two Grade 1s are out the way, the first handicap of the Cheltenham Festival, the Ultima Handicap Chase, provides the first big puzzle for punters to solve. With the help of some key trends, we have found which directions can guide you towards some great early profit.
Age
A middling age is usually requisite for an Ultima Handicap Chase winner, symbolising a need for chasing experience without age having wearied the legs too much. 13 of the last 20 winners have been aged either seven or eight, so sticking to runners in this bracket will give you more than a fair chance of finding the winner.
Then again, if you are to side with an alternate age group, make sure your chosen horse is older than eight. Six of the other seven winners have been aged between nine and 11; no horse aged older than 11-year-old Vintage Clouds in 2021 has ever triumphed, though Coo Star Sivola was one of just three six-year-olds to ever win the race when successful in 2018.
Age of the Last 20 Ultima Handicap Chase Winners
- 6 or below – 1 winner
- 7 – 5 winners
- 8 – 8 winners
- 9 – 3 winners
- 10 – 2 winners
- 11+ – 1 winner
Starting Price
This being a handicap, it is tricky to find a winner even towards the head of the market. Only three favourites have justified their position in the betting in the last 20 editions, with Corach Rambler being one such horse last year, although even he was only joint favourite. Those winning favourites started at 5/1 (twice) and 6/1, though, so they were hardly bankers.
Generally, a horse within the top ten in the market will suffice. Only four horses have triumphed in the last 20 seasons above odds of 14/1, with Joes Edge causing the biggest upset at 50/1 in 2007. Some may try and look for substantial value as a result, but 11 of the 20 winners have started the race at single-figure odds, so the clues are usually there.
Starting Price of the Last 20 Ultima Handicap Chase Winners
- 5/1 or below – 3 winners
- 11/2-9/1 – 8 winners
- 10/1-14/1 – 5 winners
- 16/1+ – 4 winners
Weight Carried
As a handicap, it is more important to look at the weights carried by the winners compared to the handicap ratings, as the latter are more swayed by which horse carries top weight. The Ultima Handicap Chase has gone through significant peaks and troughs in this regard.
Every winner between 2004 to 2010 carried less than 11st on their back, before a run of five victors in seven years who shouldered at least 11st 2lb, including a success for top-weight Un Temps Pour Tout off 11st 12lb in 2017. However, once again, the race has somewhat changed, with four of the last six winners carrying 10st 11lb or fewer. Overall, 13 winners have won off a weight below 11st, so those below the midway point in the handicap have often done well.
Weight Carried by the Last 20 Ultima Handicap Chase Winners
- 10st-10st 7lb – 7 winners
- 10st 8lb-11st – 6 winners
- 11st 1lb-11st 7lb – 5 winners
- 11st 8lb+ – 2 winners
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