The latest GG Cheltenham ante-post is the Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophyy, with a titanic battle expected between leading favourites: Honeysuckle and Epatante. Check out his thoughts on the big race below, along with historic key trends and stats for the race.
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CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY (Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 16)
KEY STATS – AGE
All winners this century were aged five to nine. Seven-year-olds (seven winners from 54 runners) showed a profit of £27.22 to a £1 level stake at SP.
RECENT FORM
Eight of the last ten winners had scored on their most recent outing, one was second and the other was fourth.
PREP RUN
All of the last ten winners raced between 27 and 78 days ago. Three ran at Leopardstown, three at Kempton, two at Sandown and the others at Naas and Punchestown.
PREVIOUS FESTIVAL FORM
Seven of the last ten winners had previously won or placed at the Cheltenham festival. If we go back to the beginning of this century, backing all horses who had won or placed at the festival before would have found 15 winners from 123 bets (12.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £16.34 to a £1 level stake at SP.
RUNNING STYLE
Six of the last ten winners were ridden patiently, two made all (from just 11 runners) and two were prominent. When we’ve had a very big field (this race has featured 15 or more runners on six occasions this century) the winner usually comes from off the pace (five times), with those who led or raced prominently scoring just once from 38 runners.
HANDICAP ROUTE
Those who ran in a handicap in their final start before Cheltenham are just 0-49 since Make A Stand won in 1997, though most were big prices and four finished second (33-1, 25-1, 10-1 and 11-8).
KEY CONTENDERS
HONEYSUCKLE
Honeysuckle is a perfect ten from ten under Rules after her victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle, slamming Abacadabras by, appropriately, ten lengths. She just got the better of Benie Des Dieux when 9-4 for the 2m4f Mares’ Hurdle at last season’s festival, the first time she had not started as favourite since her 7-1 point-to-point victory back in April 2018. Her last raced didn’t tell us a huge amount – the runner-up needs a big field/strong pace scenario and main market rival Sharjah has a terrible record at this time of year – and the current quote of 5-2 looks short enough.
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EPATANTE
EPATANTE’s record without headgear for current trainer Nicky Henderson stands at 1111112 (6-7), including an impressive win in this race last year. She was caught out by Silver Streak’s change of tactics in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last time, coming home over six lengths behind the winner in second place. Could she bounce back at Cheltenham? Yes. Would I take odds of 5-2 to find out? No.
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SILVER STREAK
Long suffering GG readers will recall that I napped SILVER STREAK in the 2019 Champion Hurdle and recommended backing him each-way at 100-1. He ran a blinder to finish third to Espoir D’Allen and got closer to the winner when a 20-1 sixth of 17 behind Epatante last year. Roll back to January of 2019 and Evan Williams had this to say about the grey son of Dark Angel – “Silver Streak won’t go for the Champion Hurdle, his jumping isn’t good enough in that grade. There’s no point in being dreamers.”
Fast forward to last autumn and Williams was saying that they now believed him to be a true Grade 1 performer and would train him as such. He runs extremely well when fresh and loves good ground, conditions that coincided when he bolted up first-time out in Listed company at Kempton, despite taking a walk in the market from 11-4 to 9-2. Carried out early in the Fighting Fifth, he was narrowly beaten by Song For Someone in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December when still relatively fresh (55 days since is his last completed start). He surprised me by winning the Christmas Hurdle, as the race came just 14 days after his short-head Cheltenham defeat, though the good to soft ground was ideal. He heads to Cheltenham a fresh horse, he looks to have improved since last year’s sixth, and his latest win shows how versatile he is tactically. We’re being asked to take a much shorter price this year (about 12-1) but he holds obvious claims.
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ABACADABRAS
I thought ABACADABRAS enhanced his Champion Hurdle claims when chasing home Honeysuckle at Leoaprdstown, as the small field didn’t play to his strengths. He hasn’t encountered a big field since his narrow second of 15 to Shishkin in last year’s Supreme and he also ran well at the festival in 2019, finished fourth of 14 to Envoi Allen in the bumper.
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ASPIRE TOWER
ASPIRE TOWER bounced back from his fall in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at last year’s Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) to finish second to Burning Victory in the Triumph. This term, he scored in Grade 2 company at Down Royal before finding only Sharjah two lengths too good at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting though is likely to face pressure for the lead.
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SHARJAH
SHARJAH conforms to what I call the ‘Party Animal’ pattern – he’s in great form pre-New Year’s Eve then runs as though he’s got a stinking hangover. He was held behind Honeysuckle at the DRF, taking his record from January to July to 78463B62403 (0-11). His supporters will refer me to last year’s runner-up effort in this race but we were also told that was one of the weakest Champion Hurdles for years and I wouldn’t bet on him to improve his position.
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SAINT ROI
SAINT ROI has 21 lengths to make up with Honeysuckle on their running at the DRF but he could be closer in this bigger field. He was very impressive when slaughtering 23 rivals in last season’s County Hurdle and is one of several with each-way claims.
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SONG FOR SOMEONE
SONG FOR SOMEONE has only once finished out of the frame since gelded, recording form figures of 116132111 (6-9), with the sixth place coming on his first foray into Grade 1 company. He seems equally effective over 2m and the 2m3.5f trip he won over at Ascot in November and was very game when landing the International Hurdle by a nose from Silver Streak on his most recent outing. However, he’s been off the track for longer than ideal (94 days) and is likely to face fierce competition for the early lead.
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BUVEUR D’AIR
BUVEUR D’AIR was the 4-6 favourite when winning this race by a neck from Melon in 2018 and fell 12 months later when an 11-4 shot. He ran as though the race were needed when second of three to Navajo Pass at Haydock in January – his first run for 14 months – and it’s worth remembering that he has finished first or second in 22 of his 24 completed starts, with one of the exceptions a 10-1 third to Altior in the 2016 Supreme.
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GOSHEN
GOSHEN, desperately unlucky in the Triumph Hurdle at last season’s festival, has looked a shadow of his former self in recent starts and I’m amazed he’s a short as 25-1 after finishing last of ten behind Song For Someone when the 6-4 favourite for the International Hurdle.
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BUZZ
BUZZ doesn’t always find as much as looks likely after travelling well but three of his four Flat wins came in double-digit line-ups and his hurdling form is following a similar pattern. He fared best of those to come from off the pace when second of 17 to Not So Sleepy at Ascot in December and I’d quite happily back him each-way for this of we have a field of 14+ featuring plenty of pace angles.
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UNIBET CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY VERDICT
A fantastic race in prospect if the majority stand their ground and that could make life tough for the habitual front-runners. The unbeaten Honeysuckle and 2020 heroine Epatante both have strong claims but make little appeal at their current odds. Silver Streak, conqueror of Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle, will appreciate the likely strong gallop and has a good chance of making it third time lucky in this race, though ABACADABRAS is just preferred. Others with each-way claims include Saint Roi, Buveir D’Air and Buzz.
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