Top tipster Andrew Mount loves using statistics and trends to find some big winners, with this weekend’s Unibet International Hurdle at Cheltenham his focus for this coming Saturday. Check out his views and take advantage of £10 FREE BET OFFER AT NOVIBET
UNBET INTERNATIONAL HURDLE KEY TRENDS
Age:
a real mixed bag in the past 20 renewals, with winners aged from four right through to ten. Five-year-olds have exceeded expectations, scoring seven times from 37 qualifiers for a profit of £19.85 to a £1 level stake at SP. Sone For Someone is the only five-year-old entered this year.
Recent Form:
12 of the last 20 winners scored on their most recent outing (from 36 qualifiers) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £31.96 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who has won over hurdles in the last 28 days had a nine from 20 record for a profit of £40.86. Song For Someone is the only qualifier on this angle.
Prep Run:
those who raced at Cheltenham last time had a ten from 42 record (+£33.19). Runners who prepped at Newcastle were (0-16), although six of them finished second.
Running Style:
three of the last 20 winner made the running, nine were prominent and eight came from off the pace.
Trainers:
Nick Henderson leads the way with six winners from 18 runners this century (+£19.50) while Nigel Twiston-Davies (4-12, +£6.60) and Paul Nicholls (3-15, +£21.20) have also shown a profit at SP. Alan King (0-5), Evan Williams (0-5) and Dan Skelton (0-4) are yet to get off the mark.
Market Position:
13 winners were favourite or joint-favourite and backing the market leaders blind would have returned a profit of £7.99.
THE CONTENDERS
GOSHEN, desperately unlucky not to win the Triumph Hurdle on his latest jumps outing, heads the antepost betting at around the 2-1 mark. He disappointed in a couple of autumn Flat runs – finishing last of six when the 2-5 favourite at Haydock and third of seven when evens favourite at Goodwood – but it will be no surprise to see him return to form for his in-form yard. Given his tendency to jump markedly out to his right, he’ll no doubt be brought to challenge wide against the stands’ side rail in the straight.
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CH’TIBELLO looked unlucky not to win over 2m4f at Aintree on his return to action last month, going down by half a length to Summerville Boy who got first run in that six-runner line-up. He does seem much happier given a big field/strong peace scenario, with three of his four wins have coming in fields of 24, 16 and 13 runners. His comeback effort took his record in fields of 12 or less to 22351324228569233532 (1-20), with the sole success over four years ago. He wasn’t beaten far when third of eight in this race last year but it could be another messy/tactical affair which would leave him vulnerable once more.
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SCEAU ROYAL won his first two starts back after wind surgery this season before finding Epatante too good in the Fighting Fifth. I feel harsh describing him as a failed chaser but, outside of novice company, he only scored once from eight starts over the larger obstacles. He’s hard to beat in the early-season exchanges, recording form figures from October to January of 22111114121111463112 (12-20) for a profit of £23.44 to a £1 level stake at SP. In hurdles races only, below Grade 1 level, those figures improve to 221111111 (7-9) making him a major player here.
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SILVER STREAK runs especially well when fresh and he also has a strong preference for good ground. When off the track for more than six weeks since his previous outing his record for current trainer Evan Williams reads 1112U113161 (7-11), with the third (80-1) and sixth (20-1) coming in the last two Champion Hurdles. He last raced just 14 days ago but was carried out by a loose horse in the very early stages, so should still be fresh enough to do himself justice here as his last proper race was an impressive comeback win at Kempton 55 days ago. He finished second in this race in 2018 but very soft ground would be a worry.
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SONG FOR SOMEONE has only once finished out of the frame since gelded, recording form figures of 11613211 (5-8), with the sixth place coming on his first foray into Grade 1 company. He seems equally effective over 2m and the 2m3.5f trip he won over at Ascot last time, and he could get the run of things in front.
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BALLLYANDY won four of his first five starts, culminating in victory in the 2016 Champion Bumper. Wins have been harder to come by in recent years, with January’s nose verdict over Pentland Hills at Haydock his sole success from his last ten outings. He was second in this race last year but looks more of a place-only rather than a win bet if you want him on your side.
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CALL ME LORD, who started as the 2-1 favourite when winning this narrowly from Ballyandy and Ch’tibello 12 months ago, has failed to score in four subsequent outings. Prior to last year’s win, his ability to operate left-handed had been questioned – his first nine British starts all took place on right-handed tracks – and his disappointing comeback effort at Aintree reignited those doubts. He ran well enough in the Grade 2 Coral Hurdle at Ascot last time, finishing second of three behind Song Of Someone over the 2m3.5f trip, but it’s still difficult to be certain of his ideal distance.
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SUMMERVILLE BOY won his latest completed outing over a trip of about 2m but that was in beginner’s chase company and his subsequent hurdles outings have taken place over 2m4f-3m. Only beaten by six lengths in last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle, it will be fascinating to see him cut back in trip and he could help put pace to the race if he does take his chance.
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VERDANA BLUE wasn’t helped by racing towards the inside rail (where the ground was deepest) when a close second to Mrs Hyde at Wetherby last time. However, that was a Listed mares’ race and she could prove vulnerable up in class and on ground likely to be much softer than preferred.
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STORMY IRELAND, beaten at short odds in two chase starts since joining Paul Nicholls from Willie Mullins, will appreciate the return to hurdling. Four of her last five wins have come in mares’ only races, with the exception in Garde 3 company when the 30-100 favourite.
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BIG RACE VERDICT
It’s great to see Goshen back over hurdles but his two Flat defeats are fresh in the memory and he still looks the type to do best right-handed, regardless of what he did in the Triumph. Silver Streak should go well if the ground doesn’t ease significantly while Sceau Royal will appreciate the drop in class after finding only Epatante too good in the Fighting Fifth. However, the progressive SONG FOR SOMEONE is a good trends fit and he gets the vote in an open renewal.
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