York’s Ebor Festival continues on Thursday with the card headlined by the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. Our trends expert has delved into recent renewals and provided a few pointers to help narrow down the field. Check out the key stats below, alongside an exclusive customer offer from 888sport, who are offering £30 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus, when you sign up and place a £10 bet.
Darley Yorkshire Oaks – York (15:35, Thursday 18th August)
Last Ten Winners
2021 – Snowfall (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 8/15F
2020– Love (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 4/9F
2019– Enable (John Gosden, Frankie Dettori) 1/4F
2018 – Sea Of Class (William Haggas, James Doyle) 7/4F
2017 – Enable (John Gosden, Frankie Dettori) 1/4F
2016 – Seventh Heaven (Aidan O’Brien, Colm O’Donoghue) 10/3
2015 – Pleascach (Jim Bolger, Kevin Manning) 8/1
2014 – Tapestry (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 8/1
2013 – The Fugue (John Gosden, William Buick) 2/1F
2012 – Shareta (Alain De Royer-Dupre, Christophe Lemaire) 2/1
Key Trends
Rating – Officially Rated 114 or Higher (8/10)
The Yorkshire Oaks tends to go to a filly or mare with a high official rating. Eight of the last ten renewals of the contest went to horses officially rated 114 or higher, whilst both of the exceptions were officially rated 112. Over half of this year’s field are officially rated below this figure.
Age – Aged 3yo (7/10)
Runners from the classic generation have dominated in the Yorkshire Oaks in recent years, with 3yos taking home seven of the last ten renewals. Four runners in this year’s race are 3yos.
Distance – Winner Over 1m4f (7/10)
Winning form at the trip has proven a good guide to unearthing Yorkshire Oaks winners. Seven of the last ten Yorkshire Oaks winners had won over 1m4f previously, and five of the seven runners in this year’s lineup have winning form over 1m4f.
Class – Had Finished Top 2 in a Group 1 (10/10)
The Yorkshire Oaks tends to go to a classy horse and therefore it is no real surprise that all of the last ten winners of the race had finished in the top 2 in a Group 1 previously, with eight of the last ten winners having already won a Group 1. Four of this year’s field have finished in the top 2 in a Group 1.
Betting – From the Top 2 in the Betting (9/10)
The Yorkshire Oaks is a race that punters have tended to get right, with nine of the last ten winners coming from the top 2 in the betting and the exception to this, Pleascach, the joint third favourite at 8/1.
Form – Top 2 Finish LTO (8/10)
Horses out of form are ones to avoid in the Yorkshire Oaks, with eight of the last ten winners coming into the race on the back of a top 2 finish. Only two of this year’s field of seven come into the Yorkshire race on the back of a third or worse last time out.
Trends Verdict
3yos tend to be the ones to focus on in the Yorkshire Oaks, but the form of the classic generation has taken a few knocks recently, with Tuesday only fourth in the Irish Derby last time and the likes of Magical Lagoon, Raclette and Poptronic all officially rated lower than typical winners.
That suggests that this is set to go to one of the older horses, and Alpinista and La Petite Coco are the two main trend hitters.
Both are Group 1 winners and winners at this trip, but it’s a slight concern that the latter has done most of her racing on a softer surface and therefore Sir Mark Prescott’s ALPINISTA looks the one to be with.
This mare has come into her own of late, winning a hat-trick of German Group 1s before a reappearance victory in the Prix de Saint-Cloud when connections felt that she’s come on for the run. An Arc hopeful and the highest-rated runner in this field, she can emulate 2013 winner The Fugue by winning this after finishing runner-up in the race as a 3yo.
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