The last domestic Group 1 of the year at Doncaster and it’s only for the 2-year-olds over a mile. 5 of the last 6 winners were Irish trained, so I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals in comparison to the last 10 renewals to see what else is an important consideration when looking for this year’s winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Favourites are profitable to back blind and the market does know best here
- No real draw bias but you might prefer the top half if being picky
- At least placed last time out and ran at a mile in a Group race in the last 6 weeks
- Expected to have 2 or more runs and 2 or more wins but doesn’t need to be unbeaten
- Is expected to have already won a Group race
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
15 winning favourites from the last 25, which shows more than a 60% ROI, while 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites are all heavy loss-makers over the long term.
It’s a similar story for the last 10 renewals, although the ROI drops down to just shy of 30%, but those in behind up to and including the 5th favourite are money sappers.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the TOP three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM three stalls – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
The two halves analysis does not reach 100% for the last 25 renewals as we had a winner who was drawn in the middle of a 7-runner field.
You’d show a slight preference to a top half draw if you could be picky, but this typically tends to be a single-figure sized field and the draw isn’t the be-all and end-all.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Group race – 18/25 (72%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 7f – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8f – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 42 days or less – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last time out figures would suggest winning last time out isn’t the be-all and end-all, but there have been 4 winners in the last decade who came from the Beresford and each of those won both races.
Typically, placing last time out in a Group race over a mile having run in the last 6 weeks will fit the profile of the winner.
COURSE FORM (excluding 2006 & 2019 as run elsewhere)
- Winners who had RUN at Doncaster – 1/23 (4%) & 1/9 (11%)
Given this is a Group 1 for the 2-year-olds and over this 1 mile trip, there won’t have been too many opportunities for them to have seen this track before. The one runner who had run here had also won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 8f – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at 8f – 15/20 (75%) & 6/8 (75%)
Most winners had tried a mile before now and three-quarters of those had won at a mile too. There has been a handful of winners who had 2 runs at a mile and they were all unbeaten at the trip. There have been 12 qualifiers under that measure and it performs at 1.6 on actual vs expected.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Unbeaten this season – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 0 wins this season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 2 wins this season – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 3 wins this season – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
All winners who were unbeaten had raced no more than twice, but we’ve not had a winner who comes here from just one run since 2012.
More recently, you’re looking for a horse who has had at least 2 runs this season and at least 2 wins, but they don’t need to be unbeaten.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group race – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
There has only been one winner of this race who had previously won a Group 1, and that winner came back in 2003 and was a French raider.
10 of the last 12 runnings at this track were won by a horse who had already landed a Group race and, curiously, the two winners who won when the race was held away from Doncaster had NOT already won a Group race.
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