George Scott is hoping the long race forecast prevails in order for Bay City Roller to line up in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe following an unusually dry spell at the Longchamp venue.
Though capable on quicker ground, the New Bay colt is undoubtedly a stronger proposition in the mud. He bolted up seven lengths in a German Group 1 last November, with the now 116 rated Tiffany in second.
His crowning performance came in the Coronation Cup, where he defeated Jan Brueghel by ten lengths. That was one of the most dominant performances of the season, and he proved it was no fluke next time out. Returning from a 92 day break, he was a length behind reigning Arc champion Daryz in the Prix Foy.
That form would suggest Bay City Roller is more than entitled to go close in the Arc, provided the heavens begin to open. Speaking to Sporting Life on his chances of participating, George Scott said: “The forecast is changing all the time. There definitely looks a bit more hope. Different forecasts are saying different things, and we want to be there.
“Ninety nine chances out of a hundred we wouldn’t be in this situation. The most rain they have had roughly, and not to be nailed on, in September in the last fifteen years, was I think 110mm and the lowest is nine, and the average is 50mm.
“This year they have less than a millimetre. It is absolutely wild, but some of the forecasts are predicting a lot of rain.”
“I would say there is a 75% chance he runs” – George Scott
George Scott has seemingly learnt to be selective with his pinning of Bay City Roller, and appears unlikely to take his chance if it comes up quick.
Scott continued: “If it is watered ground he will not be running. He needs a lot of natural rainfall between now and then. I would say there is a 75% chance he runs.
“I think the forecast is definitely tipping in favour of him running. We want to run as it has been the plan the whole way to run in the Arc. But we also realise, and know, what our assets and strengths are.”
His preparation ramped up on Thursday morning as Oisin Murphy put him through his paces at Newmarket. Scott was happy with what he saw, as he added: “Visually that was very good. He is not a great work horse. So we never look for it at home, but I thought Bay City Roller moved beautifully. He looked great out there, but the ground looked beautiful. The first impression was that we are very happy with that.”