The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, independent naps, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the course. Today’s leader is Nolton Cross in the 16:25 at Wolverhampton, the only runner to hit three signals. The price has shortened from 9/2 to 11/4, there are two naps, and Nolton Cross has won four times at Wolverhampton.
How the GG Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of the five signals below, and at least one of them must be market support or naps. That way, everything on the list has attracted attention today.
- Market: the median bookmaker price at least 30% shorter, with ten or more bookmakers cutting by 20% or more.
- Naps: two current naps, or one from a tipster with a top-three nap record over the past 28 days.
- Course: at least two wins at today’s course, with a strike rate of 25% or better there.
- Trainer: 25% winners or better from at least ten runners over the previous 14 days.
- Jockey: a strike rate of 18% or better from at least 50 rides at the course.
Runners whose price has drifted since it opened are left out. The list is ranked by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than ten runners, the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day, and non-runners are excluded before publication. Nine runners qualify today.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Signals | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nolton Cross | 16:25 Wolverhampton | Backed / Napped / Course | 9/2 to 11/4 · 2 naps · 4 wins from 11 at course |
| 2 | Ballydangan | 17:08 Hexham | Backed / Course | 16/1 to 8/1 · 2 wins from 5 at course |
| 3 | Far Above Dream | 16:10 Ascot | Backed / Napped | 13/2 to 3/1 · 2 naps |
| 4 | Blazing Son | 20:15 Newcastle | Backed / Course | 6/1 to 11/4 · 3 wins from 12 at course |
| 5 | Hilltop | 16:55 Wolverhampton | Backed / Jockey | 5/1 to 11/4 · Loughnane 20% from 820 rides at track |
| 6 | Ironwill | 16:10 Ascot | Backed / Napped | 8/1 to 5/1 · 2 naps |
| 7 | Shimmering Sun | 18:00 Dundalk | Backed / Napped | 5/1 to 3/1 · Computeform nap |
| 8 | Princling | 15:00 Ascot | Backed / Napped | 10/3 to 2/1 · 2 naps |
| 9 | Izzari | 19:45 Newcastle | Napped / Course | Ratings Hub nap · 2 wins from 7 at course |
What our expert thinks
GG racing writer Billy Grimshaw on today’s list topper, Nolton Cross:
“Nolton Cross deserves to be top of the list. Four wins from 11 runs at Wolverhampton tells you the track suits, and when the market and two naps are pointing the same way, it’s hard to argue. My hesitation is the price rather than the horse. It’s carrying top weight, hasn’t won in six starts, and most of the value went when it came in from 9/2. At 11/4 I’d rather let it win without me, but if it drifts back towards 7/2 before the off, I’d be interested.”
Billy Grimshaw, GG
1. Nolton Cross · 16:25 Wolverhampton
The only runner on three signals. Nolton Cross has been backed from 9/2 to 11/4 for the Nuvo Audit Handicap, with 21 of 23 bookmakers cutting. RP Ratings in the Racing Post and Farringdon in the Morning Star both make the seven-year-old their nap, and Nolton Cross has won four of 11 starts at Wolverhampton. Hugo Palmer trains and David Probert rides at top weight of 10st 2lb. The best price is 10/3 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Sky Bet.
2. Ballydangan · 17:08 Hexham
The biggest market move on the list. Ballydangan has halved in price from 16/1 to 8/1 for the Lee “Bazza” Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Chase. The nine-year-old has won two of five starts at Hexham. Hugh Burns trains and Peter Kavanagh rides at 10st 2lb. The North in the Racing Post also has Ballydangan as their nap. bet365 and William Hill offer 17/2.
3. Far Above Dream · 16:10 Ascot
Far Above Dream has shortened from 13/2 to 3/1 for the BetMGM Handicap, with 21 of 22 bookmakers cutting, and is napped by The Judge at The Favourite and Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail. James Owen trains the four-year-old, who is top weight on 9st 12lb, and Kieran Shoemark rides. The best price is 10/3 with bet365, Unibet and Midnite.
4. Blazing Son · 20:15 Newcastle
Blazing Son has been cut from 6/1 to 11/4 for the Pipes Vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap and has won three of 12 starts at Newcastle. Bryan Smart trains the eight-year-old, and Paul Mulrennan rides at 9st 10lb. Paddy Power offer 7/2.
5. Hilltop · 16:55 Wolverhampton
Hilltop has shortened from 5/1 to 11/4 for the Appleby Mall Accountants Handicap. The jockey booking is the other signal: Billy Loughnane has ridden 161 winners from 820 rides at Wolverhampton, a 20% strike rate. Daniel & Claire Kubler train the five-year-old, and On The Nose in the Racing Post makes Hilltop their nap. Paddy Power offer 7/2.
6. Ironwill · 16:10 Ascot
Ironwill is the second qualifier from Ascot’s 4.10, backed from 8/1 to 5/1. There are two naps: one from GG’s own Andrew Mount in the Racing & Football Outlook, the other from Dave Nevison of Racing TV. Stuart Williams trains the three-year-old, and Marco Ghiani rides at 8st 11lb. Paddy Power and Sky Bet offer 6/1.
7. Shimmering Sun · 18:00 Dundalk
Shimmering Sun has been backed from 5/1 to 3/1 for the Listed Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes and is the nap of Computeform at The Racing App, which has found 11 winners from its last 28 naps. Harry Eustace sends the two-year-old over from Newmarket, and Ben Coen rides. bet365 and Betfair offer 10/3.
8. Princling · 15:00 Ascot
Princling has come in from 10/3 to 2/1 for the Colliers Classified Stakes over a mile. Templegate in The Sun and racing-daily.com both nap the William Haggas three-year-old, who is the highest-rated runner in the field on 104. Tom Marquand rides. Betfair offer 11/4.
9. Izzari · 19:45 Newcastle
The only runner on the list without a qualifying market move. Izzari is the nap of Ratings Hub at At The Races, the best-performing nap tipster over the past 28 days, and has won two of seven starts at Newcastle. Iain Jardine trains and Cara Tuke rides. The price has edged in from 7/4 to 5/4, and Sky Bet still offer 7/4.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the three nap tipsters with the best strike rate over the 28 days to Thursday 1 October, and their picks today:
- Ratings Hub (At The Races): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Izzari, 19:45 Newcastle.
- Computeform (The Racing App): 11 winners from 28 naps (39%). Today: Shimmering Sun, 18:00 Dundalk.
- BGTips.co.uk: 10 winners from 26 naps (38%). Today: Dark Tide Rising, 13:38 Hexham.
The most-napped horse of the day is Infraad in the Noel Murless Stakes at 15:35 Ascot, with six naps, including from Mercury and Glendale. The price has barely moved from odds-on, so naps are the only signal and Infraad misses the list. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest backed moves this morning
The three biggest market moves of the morning all miss the Hot List because none has a second signal:
- Distinction (16:05 Newcastle): 17/1 to 7/1, a 56% move.
- Hot Fuss (16:45 Ascot): 10/1 to 4/1, a 55% move.
- Knightbolt (18:15 Newcastle): 20/1 to 10/1, a 48% move.
These are price movements, not recommendations.
How yesterday’s Hot List did
Thursday’s Hot List had two runners and both finished second at Salisbury. Social Symbol (11/8) reared leaving the stalls and was beaten a length and a half by A Bear Affair. Sintra (5/4) led over two furlongs out and was headed in the final strides, beaten a head by the 33/1 shot Due To Henry. A £1 win bet on each at starting price returned nothing, a £2 loss. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Prices checked at 09:00 BST on Friday 2 October and subject to change. Market moves use median bookmaker prices; trainer form covers 18 September to 1 October.
18+ | BeGambleAware.org