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Grand National Festival Trends - Day Three

Grand National Festival Trends - Day Three

Day three features the most famous race in all of sport, the Randox Grand National. Dave Young is not letting his focus slip though, as he previews the trends for every race on the final day of Aintree’s main meeting.

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3m William Hill Handicap Hurdle

  • 9 of the last 10 winners raced at 2m4f-2m5f last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners posted between 133 and 145 as their season peak RPR
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had not raced at about 3m+
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were single-figure priced

Shortlist – CHAMPAGNE TWIST & LANGER DAN


Mersey Novices’ Hurdle

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were 5 or 6yo’s
  • 9 of the last 10 winners raced in March (6 at Cheltenham)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out (6 of those won)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 4+ runs (the 2 with 3 runs were unbeaten, the other 8 weren’t)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run at about 2m 4f before
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 3 or better and/or finished top 2 in a Grade 1
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had posted an RPR of 146+ (4 were 152+)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners posted their best RPR last time out

Shortlist – BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD & SLADE STEEL


3m1f William Hill Handicap Chase

  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 4+ runs that season
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had run at 3m+
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran 31 days ago or less (the other was 49 days)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had posted an RPR of 144+ that season (last 4 were 154+)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree before

Shortlist – AHOY SENOR & FLEGMATIK


Liverpool Hurdle

  • 9 of the last 10 winners posted an RPR of 157+ that season
  • 8 of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham
  • 8 of the last 10 winners posted their season peak RPR last time out (1 on penultimate start)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had won a race that season
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree before
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 3 or fewer runs at about 3m (4 had never raced at it)
  • 5 of the last 10 winners were having their first season in open company

Shortlist – TEAHUPOO


Grand National

The Grand National has been previewed separately here.

Shortlist – CHAMBARD & LIMERICK LACE


Maghull Novices’ Chase

  • 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had 4+ runs that season (all of the last 9)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 2+ wins that season and at about 2 miles
  • 8 of the last 10 winners last ran in March (4 of those at Cheltenham)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had recorded an RPR of 158+

Shortlist – FOUND A FIFTY


Grade 2 Bumper

  • ALL of the last 10 winners had posted an RPR of 109+
  • 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at Cheltenham
  • 9 of the last 10 winners recorded their best RPR last time out
  • 8 of the last 10 winners were 5yo’s
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had 2+ runs that season (last 2 didn’t)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had 48+ days off
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 14/1+

Shortlist – FARLAND & TRIPOLI FLYER


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