The Old Roan Chase at Aintree was first run in 2004 and since then we’ve seen lots of Graded winners taking in this handicap at the start of their season, and it’s had plenty of older winners too.
I’ve looked at all runnings and compared them to the last 10 renewals to see what the established trends are and which might be turning.
KEY TRENDS
- Any age can win this race, but preference goes to those 8 and older, especially 9-year-olds
- Favourites don’t have a good record in this race with just one win since 2012, but all of those winning favourites had just 5 UK/IRE chase starts
- Most winners carried 10-07 and less or 11 stone and more
- Will hold an OR of 149 or higher
- Last ran at 2m3f or further if no run this season, or less than 2m3f if they have run this season
- Probably has run at Aintree and multiple times, but not required to have won here
- Should have multiple wins at 2m3f to 2m5f
- Expected to be a Graded winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/22 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 2/22 (9%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 2/22 (9%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 4/22 (18%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 7/22 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 10yo – 3/22 (14%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 2/22 (9%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 12yo – 1/22 (5%) & 0/10 (0%)
We’ve seen all ages win this race, but the bulk of winners can be found around the ages of 8 to 10.
9-year-olds have the biggest level stake profit and the most winners, but you would make money backing any age from 8 and older, and you’d have found 17 of the 22 winners if backing everything 8 and older.
In the last decade it’s the same picture that’s painted, although there has been just one runner older than 10, who was beaten, but the profit from backing those 8 and older is still massive at £48.50.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/22 (14%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Single figures – 15/22 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
Not many favourites have landed this race and one of those who did was Kauto Star. Most winners are sent off in single figures though, which offers some hope of market guidance, but then again, 3 of the last 6 winners were sent off between 16/1 and 25/1!
WEIGHT
- Carrying 11 stone plus – 14/22 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners will be carrying 11 stone or more, but looking at those who carried less, 6 of the 8 carried 10-07 or less and 6 of the 8 were priced 5/1 or shorter.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 149 or more – 18/22 (82%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners hold an OR of 149 or higher, with the exceptions all being aged either 8 or 9.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 3/22 (14%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Placed – 8/22 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 19 furlongs or further – 18/22 (82%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran this season – 5/22 (23%) & 3/10 (30%)
Worth mentioning that no winner has come here off a longer layoff than 226 days. While most won’t have been seen this season, they likely ran at the Cheltenham Festival or after last season, but more likely Aintree or Sandown at the end of last season.
Most horses will have run at 19 furlongs or further last time out, and 3 of the 4 who didn’t were coming in from a prep run in the last 3 weeks and raced over shorter.
Last time out winners might not have produced many winners of this, but they are profitable blind from all renewals. Horses placing last time out is a slight red herring on the figures because half of winners finished top 3 last time out, they just raced in smaller fields. Backing all those placing 3rd last time out makes money blind and has found the most winners (5) from any last time out position.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 17/22 (77%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Aintree – 4/17 (24%) & 1/7 (14%)
While most winners of this race had run at Aintree, and on multiple occasions, not very many had winning course form.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN more than once at about 2m4f – 21/22 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at about 2m4f – 16/22 (73%) & 8/10 (80%)
Experience at 2m3f to 2m5f is essential for this contest, and not only running at those trips but winning on multiple occasions too.
SEASON FORM
- Had run this season – 6/22 (27%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had won this season – 1/6 (17%) & 1/3 (33%)
It’s an expected split of horses who had prepped vs those who hadn’t, given the class nature of this contest, and many of those who had run this season were prepping for this contest rather than peaking before. Trust the trainer to know if the horse needs a run for this or not, and expect fresh horses to have as much chance as those who have prepped.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had more than 10 RUNS over fences – 16/22 (73%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had more than 2 WINS over fences – 19/22 (86%) & 9/10 (90%)
Chase experience seems to come to the fore here, with a minimum of 10 chase starts expected but most have 15 or more. 2 wins looks like a low bar to set, but many had between 2-4 chase wins, although the 3 winning favourites all had just 5 chase starts to their name in UK/IRE.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Graded race – 17/22 (77%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had won a Grade 1 – 8/22 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
This is a very high-level handicap on paper, and although it doesn’t attract many Irish raiders, who hold the class edge in the modern chase scene, most winners had won a Graded race already.
There have been Grade 1 winners who took this race, but that’s not a marker of a guaranteed winner as 79 have tried and only 13 have won, but they are profitable to follow blind, showing a 14% ROI.
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