The first major handicap of the National Hunt season, the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham has seen many different trainers on the honours roll since Martin Pipe’s domination over 20 years ago.
Things change over time, so I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals in comparison to the last 10 to provide some insight into what it typically takes to win this race, and what might be changing.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged between 7 and 9 years old
- Probably NOT the favourite, but likely to come from the top 8 in the market
- Doesn’t carry more than 11st 7lb, and preferably no more than 11st 3lb
- Not expected to have won last time out
- Probably ran over 19.5f or 20f last time out
- Has run at Cheltenham multiple times, and ideally has won here too
- Has won over 19-21f, and preferably has 7 or more runs at around those distances
- Ideally has 6 or more chase starts and 2 or more chase wins
- Will have won a handicap (chase or hurdle) before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 5/25 (20%) & 4/10 (40%)
7 to 9-year-olds dominate this contest in terms of both runners and winners, but it’s the top end of that age range that holds the best strike rate and is profitable blind across both periods.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- SP between 5/1 and 8/1 – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
Favourites don’t have the best record in this contest, and even looking at runners priced relatively short in a big-field handicap such as this, you still don’t find most winners. That said, there have only been 2 winners priced 20/1 or bigger, and 6 of the last 10 winners came from 4th to 8th in the market.
It’s 11 in total from that same market ranking in the last 25 years, and all bar 2 winners came from the first 8 in the betting.
WEIGHT
- Carried 11st 3lb or lower – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Carried 11st 7lb or lower – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Weight carried looks an important marker, as most winners carried no more than 11st 7lb, and the bulk of those carried no more than 11st 3lb.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 137 to 147 – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
A consistent rating band has been set across both periods, although 5 of the 6 in the band from the last 10 renewals fit between 141 and 147.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran 21 days ago or less – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran 35 days ago or less – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran 100 days ago or more – 11/25 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran over 19.5f or 20f – 14/25 (56%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won last time out – 6/25 (24%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Ran at Aintree, Chepstow or Wetherby – 12/25 (48%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Sent off at a single-figure price – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of this race in the modern day had run this season and inside the last 5 weeks. That wasn’t always the case, but it appears to be a turning trend, although 2 of the last 3 winners had not run this season.
Most winners had their last run over 19.5f or 20f, but not last year’s winner. Given the timeframe of when runners last ran, it coincides with the last run coming at Aintree, Chepstow or Wetherby.
Only one winner of this race was sent off bigger than 12/1 last time out, and most winners were sent off at a single-figure price. Nine winners were sent off favourite last time out, but only two of those won. Price, rather than market position and placing, looks to be more important, considering none of the last 12 winners won last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 17/24 (71%) & 6/9 (67%)
- Winners who had run MORE than twice at Cheltenham – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Only Ga Law in 2022 hadn’t raced at Cheltenham, and of those who had been here, only L’Antartique back in 2007 hadn’t raced here more than once. Multiple course runs are expected, and it’s preferable to have won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON between 2m3f and 2m5f – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had 7 or more runs between 2m3f and 2m5f – 15/25 (60%) & 9/10 (90%)
These middle-distance races have plenty of coverage, so lots of experience is expected, with most winners having had at least 7 runs between 19f and 21f. All bar Celestial Gold in 2004 had won over 19-21f, and he hadn’t tried the trip.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had at least 6 RUNS over fences – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had at least 2 WINS over fences – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
Chase experience is crucial in this race, and while 2 winners from the last 10 didn’t have 6 chase starts, both had 5. Two chase wins is also the minimum bar to expect coming into this race.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Graded race – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
We’ve had plenty of decent horses win this race, and with that, many had Graded form to bring into this contest. It’s not make or break, though, so while more winners had Graded form, I wouldn’t use that as a box to be ticked.
HANDICAP FORM
- Had won a handicap chase – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a handicap hurdle – 7/25 (28%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won either a handicap hurdle or handicap chase – 18/25 (72%) & 10/10 (100%)
There’s definitely been a change in the type of winner of this race based on their hurdling experience, including in handicaps. Every winner in the last 10 renewals had won a handicap of some description, but just over half had won a handicap chase.
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