The Stayers’ Hurdle is littered with multiple winners of this Championship race, but many have tried and failed too. Can Teahupoo become the next horse to get his name on here twice in another renewal where he looks the standout contender?
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if I can answer that question and if not him, find out how to decide who the biggest threats are.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to 6 and 7-year-olds
- Favourites are costly to follow unless you just backed those with an SP of 1/1 to 6/4
- Just needs to hold an OR of 152 or higher, doesn’t need to be the top-rated runner
- Must have placed Top 4 last time out
- Should have last run between 46 and 80 days ago
- Should have run at Cheltenham before and previous Festival winners are respected
- Expected to have run and won at 23-25 furlongs
- Should have already won a Grade 1
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 7/25 (28%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 9/25 (36%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 8yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
Both 6 and 7-year-olds have been profitable to back blind this century with a near 10% ROI for each. 8 and 9-year-olds both operate at a 6% strike rate and are heavy loss makers to follow blind. In the last decade, 7-year-olds have dominated and they show a 133% ROI.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6/4 or shorter – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
Favourites are loss makers in the last decade but they well outperform second and third favourites. Backing runners priced 6/4 or shorter though shows a 30% ROI from the last 10 renewals with 3 winners from the 5 qualifiers, all who were sent off between even money and 6/4, so no odds-on winners since Big Buck’s in 2012.
Backing runners sent off 6/4 or shorter is also profitable this century with about the same profit made but from a bigger number of runners. Favourites are still loss makers blind although they still outperform second favourites. It’s third favourites that are profitable to back blind this century.
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 152 or more – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners with the TOP OR – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
The staying hurdling division is often seen as the lesser of the big 4 and given the bar is set at just 152 to be in with contention of landing this you’d have to agree on figures it doesn’t look great.
Only 8 winners of this race this century held the highest OR in the race which shows a negative 33% ROI. 7 of those winners were the favourite and three were Big Buck’s alone.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Top 2 last time out – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran between 46 and 80 days ago – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners won last time out but extending that to Top 2 finishes means you capture the majority of winners but you’d lose money. That said, only one winner didn’t finish in the Top 4 last time out and they fell. Interestingly, if you backed all runners who placed 3rd or 4th you’d be showing a profit this century. Exactly the same pattern in the last decade but those 3rd and 4th placed runners from last time out show a 150% ROI!
Around two-thirds of winners this century last ran between 46 and 80 days ago which only shows a minus 8% ROI. Looking at the same measure from the last 10 years, we see a positive 13% ROI.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at the Festival before – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had PLACED at the Festival before – 14/25 (0%) & 6/10 (60%)
A consistent marker is previous Festival winners accounting for 40% of the winners across both periods measured. Backing previous Festival winners shows a small 4% negative ROI to SP this century but shows a 25% positive ROI if using Betfair SP. From the last 10 renewals 4 had previously tasted Festival success and they’re profitable blind to SP showing a 45% ROI which jumps to 95% using Betfair.
In the last decade backing horses who placed at The Festival still finds 6 winners but turns into a loss maker at SP. This century, it finds 4 more winners, but the losses are increased and even Betfair SP isn’t profitable to follow.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 23-25 furlongs – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 23-25 furlongs – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Distance form and winning distance form is essential. You should only really make an exception for 6-year-olds.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Typically for a Festival Grade 1 you’d expect the winner to hold a previous win at the same level, but with the OR bar sitting as low as it does you might expect this race to be an exception. Not the case and it still takes a proper horse to land this.