Mother Nature has a tendency to write her own poetic narrative, and such was the case this morning as the bitter October chill began to set in, in tandem with grey, drizzling skies mimicking the watering away of the Flat season on the back of Champions Day.
As the curtain closes on Ascot, the sleeping giant of Prestbury Park awakens, with Cheltenham on the weekend’s horizon. The heavens are beginning to open across the country, suggesting the National Hunt season is set to take centre stage, but there is still some narrative from the level to reflect upon during this intermediary changing of the guard.
The Coolmore conundrum
Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore are renowned for their stallion-making thoroughbreds, who tend to dominate the Flat campaign throughout the year. Galileo put the Ballydoyle operation on an unrivalled pedestal in 2001, as the dual Derby and King George winner went on to shape the breed with multiple sons at stud and some of the best mares around.
In recent years, Coolmore’s three-year-olds have farmed Europe’s ten and twelve-furlong contests. The likes of Delacroix, City Of Troy, Auguste Rodin, St Mark’s Basilica, Saxon Warrior and Paddington have all combined their prestigious pedigrees with elite talent on the track. Which begs the question: how on earth have they got it so wrong with Gstaad and Constitution River?
According to Timeform’s latest rankings, Constitution River (127) and Gstaad (126) are two of the three top-rated three-year-olds in Europe. Now, Gstaad doesn’t fit into the 10f-12f category of the aforementioned, but they’ve still treated him as one of their best colts.
A Coventry winner and a Breeders’ Cup winner at two, Gstaad set off this season with Coolmore intending to make him into a star miler. Remarkably, he’s won just once, in the Irish 2000 Guineas. The caveat is that he’s bumped into Bow Echo three times, who has retired as one of the best milers in recent years.
However, despite Bow Echo’s absence from Gstaad’s last two starts, he’s been beaten a combined thirteen lengths. In his five starts in Britain and Ireland this season, he’s demonstrated both speed and a large stride length. He was initially going to step up to ten furlongs at Ascot, but a late switch saw him contest the mile. I wonder whether they’ve forced a Classic campaign on him, as opposed to sticking with his pedigree’s suggestion that he might’ve been a sprinter all along?
He’s by Starspangledbanner, a July Cup and Jubilee Stakes winner over six furlongs, out of an Exceed And Excel mare kept to five furlongs for her career. All five of his siblings were sprinters, including the Middle Park winner Vandeek, whose connections were adamant he would not stay beyond six.
Very little in his pedigree suggests he has the stamina for a mile, let alone ten furlongs, and while the stride analysts would contest the argument, perhaps he’s a sprinting star that got away – but what use is that to an operation predominantly attempting to breed Classic winners?
Then we have Constitution River, a Wootton Bassett colt whose final two-year-old start saw him win the Group 2 Wootton Bassett Futurity Stakes. He was flagged as a Classic colt, or at the very least a Group 1-winning colt, from early on in his three-year-old campaign.
But it was strange that they took him to the Dee Stakes. O’Brien has won that with Mount Kilimanjaro, Romantic Thor, San Antonio and Star Of India in the last four years. The latest is now rated 108 for Niels Petersen, Romantic Thor was shipped off to Hong Kong, San Antonio was beaten 16 lengths in the Derby, and Star Of India is now in Australia.
For a yard whose success has come largely on the back of sticking to a rigid pattern, I wonder how highly they truly regarded him? Yes, he won a French Derby, but the form has proved torrid, with Hawk Mountain and Montreal subsequently relegated to pacemaking duties. Yes, he won an Eclipse, but that too wasn’t exceptional form. His last three starts saw him finish 3rd, 3rd and 5th.
The Coolmore narrative surrounding him has been one of their worst misreads we’ve seen. We shouldn’t forget the supposed monster Albert Einstein fits into that category too this season. The fillies have flown the Coolmore flag this season, but as for the colts, they won’t want to remember this campaign in a hurry.
Where does Ombudsman stand in the pantheon of Clarehaven greats?
Ombudsman produced one of his finest performances last weekend as he downed Calandagan in impressive style to take the British Champion Stakes. Rated 132, and receiving a marginal career-best RPR of 134, is he one of the best ever produced by the Gosdens?
He’s a five-time Group 1 winner whose defeats have only come at the hands of Almaqam, Delacroix, Calandagan, Item and Constitution River – arguably some of the best talents in Europe under those respective conditions at the time.
However, recency bias shouldn’t let us forget some of the Gosden greats. Golden Horn was a Dante, Derby, Eclipse, Irish Champion and Arc winner, which certainly excels Ombudsman’s three-year-old campaign. Kingman was a different model to the pair, second in a 2000 Guineas before winning the Irish equivalent, the St James’s Palace, the Sussex and the Prix Jacques Le Marois, though he arguably dominated a weak crop of milers.
Then there’s Cracksman, a four-time Group 1 winner placed in both a Derby and a Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, and of course Enable, a winner of 15 of her 19 races, including 11 Group 1s and two Arcs.
Ombudsman deserves his place at the table with those greats, particularly given his longevity as a Group winner at three, four and five. But he beat an arguably declining Calandagan last time out and was no match for him at his peak. He failed to back up his Juddmonte win, and bar Delacroix last season, you’d have to argue it wasn’t the strongest of races, with the international runners not giving their running. He also beat a below-par Minnie Hauk at Royal Ascot, with Daryz again failing to travel and the ground not ideal for Almaqam.
While I think he’s a phenomenal racehorse, there are plausible reasons to pigeonhole his success, and for that I would argue he doesn’t quite match some of the aforementioned Clarehaven greats.
Ka Ying Rising – a mortal after all
Sometimes defeat is a form of success. Not in the immediate sense of the word, but I was fascinated by Ka Ying Rising’s performance in The Everest and the whole discourse surrounding it. The official best horse in the world hadn’t tasted defeat in 21 races. His ability to take the sting out of his rivals early on and sustain the gallop meant they were beaten barely after they’d left the stalls.
He’d won The Everest last season, beating Tempted from stall two on good ground. This year posed a different challenge, however, as he was drawn in stall 11 of 12 on much softer ground. Despite being sent off the best-backed runner in the history of the race, the writing was on the wall quickly. Purton failed to gain a suitable early position, forcing him to challenge wide while the eventual winner, Tempted, reversed last year’s form having cut the corner from his inside pitch.
If anything, Ka Ying Rising produced one of his best performances to be beaten a neck given the trip, and he was ahead a stride after the line. But where does this leave Ka Ying Rising as one of the alleged best sprinters of all time? Eight of his 22 victories saw him beat the same rival, Helios Express, in his native Hong Kong. He was ahead of Joliestar by a neck at Randwick, but she was a short neck behind Almeraq at Royal Ascot, who was also ahead of Satono Reve there – two horses to have been marginally beaten by Ka Ying Rising in their careers. Do we perhaps need to give Almeraq more credence, and could he make himself one of the greatest ever if campaigned daringly next season?
The Aussie reaction was tremendous. The idea that something could eclipse their beloved Black Caviar was an insult to them. The booing of a generational thoroughbred left something of a sour taste, however, but the reaction proved just how monumentally important the contest was, and what heightened emotion this sport can unearth at the highest level.
Eye-catcher of the week – Believed, Saturday 14:40 Ascot
Minnie Hauk bounced back to form in the Fillies & Mares having reportedly suffered issues with corns in her feet throughout the season. If that was her true running, then connections can be excited about Believed going forward.
The Frankel filly had the winner on her left throughout, but she got first run as stablemate Sugar Island penned the runner-up in as Minnie Hauk got going, before rallying well for second.
By Frankel and a half-sister to the 2022 Melbourne Cup winner Gold Trip, she’s bound to improve with age, and her pedigree suggests she could be a high-class staying filly next season.