The 1000 Guineas is the second Classic of the season, coming just 24 hours after the first, and it’s the ladies who take centre stage. The market suggests this is a competitive renewal and I’ve taken a look at the 10-year trends to see if we can find some value in this field. This time round, I’ve whittled it down to just one runner, so with a recent trends winner in the Bet365 Gold Cup, this could be a great start to the flat season.
10-Year Trends
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run at 1m (only 4 had won)
- 9 of the last 10 winners were NOT sent off favourite
- 8 of the last 10 winners were not in the top 3 Official Rated runners
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 5 or more careers starts
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won a Group race
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won more than once
- 7 of the last 10 winners had a peak RPR of 109-111
- 7 of the last 10 winners placed 1st or 2nd last time out
Verdict
Not often you look at a race and feel that you need to steer clear of the market principles, but with just one winning favourite from the last 10 and 5 of the last 6 being priced 9/1+ we’re doing just that.
PORTA FORTUNA ticks the most boxes here and narrowly missed out on the peak RPR band of 109-111 with a 108 posted the last twice. She’s raced at a mile and was only narrowly beaten but only four of the last 10 winners had won at a mile despite all having run at the trip, so that’s solid enough. She won on debut on Heavy ground but has since won two Group races on Good-To-Firm.
Tom Marquand is due to take the ride and it’s interesting that this horse has had 4 different Jockeys before now with three of those winning on her first time up. The exception was Oisin Murphy who was second in the Phoenix Stakes when taking on the boys but duly made up for that back in Fillies company by landing the Cheveley Park Stakes at this track over 6f.
She’s available at a top price of 20/1 at the time of writing so with the front few in the market having form chances, the trends suggest Porta Fortuna is the one who can prove history right and her form is no exactly miles off those who are a much shorter prices.
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