The second Classic of the flat season is where the fillies take centre stage and last year’s winner Desert Flower was the first winning favourite since Minding in 2016.
I’ve looked at this race with a view to the last 25 renewals and the last 10, to compare the consistent trends and identify anything that might have already turned or be looking like turning in the hope we can identify this year’s winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to runners drawn in the highest or lowest 3 stalls but not a deal breaker
- Preference goes to those sent off at 17/2 to 20/1 (Profitable blind)
- Preference goes to those sent of 5th, 6th or 7th in the market at SP (Profitable blind)
- Should hold an OR of 106 or more and must have recorded a 100+ RPR before now
- Most recent winners of this race did NOT win last time out
- Respect all runners who had their last domestic race on this course
- Should have raced at 8-furlongs but not expected to have won at 8-furlongs
Focussed Trends
STALL
- Lowest three stalls – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Highest three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
Considering the field size of this race it’s certainly notable that the wings that hold the highest and lowest three runners on each side have won around half of renewals.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- NOT from the Top 3 in the betting – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- SP of 17/2 to 20/1 – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites run at a loss in both periods covered in this race and in the last 25 the first 4 in the market are loss makers but the 5th, 6th and 7th in at SP all show profits. This pattern continues when just looking at the last 10 runnings.
Backing all runners in the price band of 17/2 to 20/1 is profitable across the last 25 years and is profitable in the last 10 too.
OFFICIAL RATING (since 2009)
- Winners with an OR of 106 or higher – 13/17 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 109 or higher – 10/17 (59%) & 7/10 (70%)
Given the nature of this race, it’s no surprise it takes a highly rated runner to land the spoils in most cases and every winner since 2012 has recorded a triple figure RPR before now.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2nd or 3rd last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran in the last 30 days – 9/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
Last time out winners are the biggest loss makers, but they also account for the most runners. There’s been up upturn in winners who placed 2nd or 3rd last time out but you’d also have to include horses who placed 4th last time out to make a profitable group.
Most winners did NOT run in the last 30 days, but the trend is displayed as backing all runners who had raced in the last 30 days would show a profit across both periods measured.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newmarket (Rowley) – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Newmarket (Rowley) – 8/17 (44%) & 4/7 (57%)
- Winners whose last domestic run came at Newmarket (Rowley) – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
Course experience is quite significant in this contest and if you were to back every runner who simply raced here on their last domestic start you’d be showing a 60% ROI to SP alone. If you add in that the horse did NOT win last time out it finds 5 of the 8 winners who ran at the track last time out and increase the ROI to 135%, again to SP alone.
FORM
- Had won 50% or more of their races – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had run at 8-furlongs – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had NOT won over 8-furlongs or further – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Has won a Group race – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
Desert Flower was the first unbeaten winner of this contest since 2004 and most winners of this race have lost more races than they had won.
This falls in line with the fact most winner had run at 8 furlongs but most winner had NOT won at 8 furlongs (or further)
Only 7 winners from the last 25 and 3 winners from the last 10 had won a Group 1 but most winners had a Group win of some form to their name.
SIGNIFICANT RACES ON LAST RUN (and last year the Guineas winner took in the race)
- Newmarket Fillies’ Mile – 5 winners from 36 runners (2025)
- Nell Gwyn Stakes – 4 winners from 80 runners (2022)
- Cheveley Park Stakes – 4 winners from 28 runners (2022)
- Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes – 3 winners from 23 runners (2017)
- Fred Darling – 2 winners from 53 runners (2024)
- Rockfel Stakes – 2 winners from 19 runners (2006)
There are a few paths into this race that are profitable but the Nell Gwyn and Leopardstown Trial Stakes who the biggest blind profits with £13 and £26 respectively although the Newmarket Fillies’ Mile hold the most winners with 5 taking this race following an appearance in that.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Desert Flower (IRE)
- 2024 – Elmalka (GB)
- 2023 – Mawj (IRE)
- 2022 – Cachet (IRE)
- 2021 – Mother Earth (IRE)
- 2020 – Love (IRE)
- 2019 – Hermosa (IRE)
- 2018 – Billesdon Brook (GB)
- 2017 – Winter (IRE)
- 2016 – Minding (IRE)
- 2015 – Legatissimo (IRE)
- 2014 – Miss France (IRE)
- 2013 – Sky Lantern (IRE)
- 2012 – Homecoming Queen (IRE)
- 2011 – Blue Bunting (USA)
- 2010 – Special Duty (GB)
- 2009 – Ghanaati (USA)
- 2008 – Natagora (FR)
- 2007 – Finsceal Beo (IRE)
- 2006 – Speciosa (IRE)
- 2005 – Virginia Waters (USA)
- 2004 – Attraction (GB)
- 2003 – Russian Rhythm (USA)
- 2002 – Kazzia (GER)
- 2001 – Ameerat (GB)
- 2000 – Lahan (GB)