The first Classic of the season has not been this hotly anticipated for many a year. With a number of exciting opponents attempting to topple the superstar favourite, Joe Napier previews the race and gives his selection.
Chaldean proved best on the day at Newmarket a year ago, giving Frankie Dettori one last victory in his final ride in the race.
CITY OF TROY
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
In the last decade, only Too Darn Hot (126) and Pinatubo (128) have started off their Classic campaigns with a higher official rating than City Of Troy. He is rated 125 coming into the 2000 Guineas, yet while Too Darn Hot needed four, and Pinatubo six, in order to achieve their marks, City Of Troy did so off the back of just three runs as a juvenile.
The impression he has left is outstanding. He devoured the July Course for his 6½ length triumph in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes last summer, then did the same in the closing stages of the Dewhurst, the premier juvenile contest. His winning distance of 3½ lengths hardly did justice to his dominance.
The ground does not look a worry and his trainer relies solely upon him to give him a first success in this race since 2019. While some of his sire’s progeny have flattered to deceive at three, as well as some recent high profile stablemates, the prospect of any progression from him is a frightening one.
ROSALLION
(Richard Hannon/Sean Levey)
It is a decade since Richard Hannon Jr claimed the scallops of both Kingman and Australia in the Guineas courtesy of 40/1 shot Night Of Thunder. Rosallion is no outsider to those extremes, but it would feel like no less of a surprise if he were to lower the colours of the favourite here.
However, his charge this season has comfortably achieved more than the rest of the field, winning an Ascot Listed race that has worked out better than probably any two-year-old race of that level in history. He subsequently disappointed on soft ground, but bounced back to win his own first Group 1 in style in France.
On breeding, there would be some slight doubts about the suitability of 1m, but he looked certain to stay the trip at two. As long as the forecast rain does not make the ground too soggy, he looks the obvious danger if having trained on.
NOTABLE SPEECH
(Charlie Appleby/William Buick)
Though they pair up for significant success across the globe, Charlie Appleby and William Buick are still yet to taste success together in the 2000 Guineas. They face a tall order breaking theri duck in 2024, but Notable Speech shapes like a horse with a more than decent future ahead of him.
The sole Godolphin runner in the line-up only made his debut after City Of Troy and Rosallion won their most recent races, but he has made substantial strides on the all-weather. All three of his victories have come at Kempton over 1m, but he has coped with penalties and useful opposition every time.
The runner-up from his second success scored at Listed level next time out, so there is depth to his success. Transferring it to this company on his first start on turf is an altogether different proposition though.
THE FIELD
Taking the field against the three favourites could pay dividends, especially as it features two more unbeaten horses. Ghostwriter claimed the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over course and distance on his final two-year-old start and trainer Clive Cox is bullish about what lies ahead this season.
He has won three out of three, while Night Raider has won two out of two by a combined 14 lengths. Those victories were only gained at lowly Southwell, but the runner-up five lengths behind him on reappearance had gone off favourite for a juvenile Group 3 at York last term. He also could be anything.
Iberian claimed the scallop of Rosallion on soft ground in the Champgane Stakes at Doncaster. However, transferring that success to a sounder surface may prove difficult. He was sixth in City Of Troy’s Dewhurst in which Alyanaabi was runner-up and Haatem was fifth, with all three having a significant amount to do to overturn that form.
The last-named may be the most likely given he sparkled in the Craven Stakes on his seasonal debut two weeks ago. The value of that form in this context is up for question, but we are aware of his wellbeing, as we are with outsiders Inisherin and Ten Bob Tony, although both look outclassed unless they have taken even bigger steps forward since.
Last of the 11 runners to mention is Task Force. Juddmonte won this with Chaldean last season, and their charge should appreciate the step up to 1m this term after racing exclusively at 6f last season, culminating in a runner-up finish to Vandeek (the second highest rated juvenile in Britain and Ireland last year) in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes on the Rowley Mile.
VERDICT
The market sets up perfectly for those wishing to find an each-way bet outside of the protagonists, with even Rosallion an each-way price in places. He is second choice, with Night Raider and Task Force appealing most of those at longer odds for the places, but the race looks all about CITY OF TROY. There may be some doubters when looking at his pedigree, but the evidence against him having trained on is paltry. His trainer has signalled his faith in him by taking out the other three confirmations from Monday, so if Ballydoyle are to win the 2000 Guineas, it will be via their son of Justify. He was simply immense as a juvenile, and should cope with the demands of this race with little fuss if maintaining his upward curve.
- City Of Troy
- Rosallion
- Task Force
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