The 2000 Guineas is the first Classic of the season and this years’ renewal houses one of the most exciting 2yo’s from last season in recent years. Anything other than defeat would burst his bubble which ever way you spin afterwards, but with him priced accordingly, I’ve delved into the trends to see if we can pick out the potential spoiler in the field.
10-Year Trends
- ALL of the last 10 winners had posted an RPR of 110+ (8 were 114+)
- 9 of the last 10 winners posted a debut RPR of 79+
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least a Group Race (the other won a Listed race)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least two-thirds of their starts (other two 50% plus)
- 8 of the last 10 winners SP’d 3/1 or shorter last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season (one unseated prior)
- 6 of the last 10 winners were one of the top two highest rated runners
- 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners won on their racecourse debut
Verdict
The market has got this race about right, and for the first Classic of the season we are using a whole lot of last seasons form. That does allow unseen improvement to work its way in, as we’ve seen plenty of favourites beaten and four double-figure priced winners in the last decade, including a 40/1 shot.
CITY OF TROY is a more than worthy favourite, ever since his Dewhurst win at the track in October, which came in probably slower than ideal conditions, he oozed class and while Aidan has one every single year who might be the best he’s ever trained, this lad feasibly could be.
He was backed like defeat was out of the question in the Superlative Stakes and won with ease but if you want to play devil’s advocate, his dam has produced four before him and only one of those was able to win as a 3yo. We don’t know quite enough about Justify as a sire yet, but it may be he’s bred to be ahead of his 2yo rivals but they catch him up at 3. Still, with this being the first race of the season, that forwardness shouldn’t be all gone, but it is worth considering because he was a visibly outstanding looking 2yo.
ROSALLION is second in the betting and another trend ticker, bar not being the top two officially-rated (although if the field reduces, he’ll likely be top two), so nothing really out of the ordinary yet, but it’s worth noting his trainer’s confidence in recent interviews which is less expected vs the master Aidan O’Brien.
The yard took this race in 2014 with that aforementioned 40/1 shot Night Of Thunder who toppled both Kingman & Australia. The runner-up took four Group 1’s in a row after this defeat including the Irish 2,000 Guineas while of course the third, Australia went on to win both the British and Irish Derby, so the best horse might not always win this race. I think he’ll be ready for his life, and I believe the step up a mile will suit him for all that he’s been keen before, this is a race which rarely gets run at a sedate pace. Much like City Of Troy though, his chance is there for all to see, and his price reflects his chance too, so they’re hardly value angles into the race, but there is one more.
HENRY LONGFELLOW took over from City Of Troy in the Vincent O’Brien National stakes last September and it was known he’d be put away after that. Of course, he’s not travelled to the UK yet and it’s no certainty he will this year, however on figures he’s more than capable of winning recent renewals of this race and his dam, Minding, took the 1,000 Guineas herself in 2016 so that would be enough to clear any doubt about the track at this stage. His dad, Dubawi, was beaten in this race before landing the Irish 2,000, so I believe there’s a big chance he’ll run here, and in doing so the top price of 25/1 about him will disappear. The ground may be a little quick for him (although I think he handles it all) but they were happy to mind both Little Big Bear and Auguste Rodin in last years renewal so with him ticking all the boxes (more than Rosallion), he has to be on the shortlist.
I’ve added Aidan O’Brien’s recent stable tour comments which might temper enthusiasm while we’re waiting for Thursday’s final decs, but should he run, I would be strongly advising him as an each way bet.
“He’s done very well and has plenty of pace. We’re kind of viewing him as a miler at the moment but if he went to a French Guineas and it went well, he could end up in a French Derby. He was always quick in his work and he looks a miler the way he’s going. How much further he’d stay I’m not sure.”
Trends Selections: CITY OF TROY, ROSALLION & HENRY LONGFELLOW
2000 Guineas Odds – Odds-On City Of Troy a Potential Ballydoyle Banker
14 runners were confirmed at the five-day stage for the first Classic of the flat season, the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. However, regardless of which opponents are declared against him, there is likely to be little change in the outlook of the market, with City Of Troy a clear and strong favourite to deliver on…
Mon 29 Apr 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.