2000 Guineas trends 2026

The first Classic of the flat season hasn’t seen a winning favourite since 2017 so that means the most obvious runner isn’t always the winner.

To try and work out what can help to find this year’s victor in the 2000 Guineas, I’ve looked at the last 25 and the last 10 renewals to see what’s a long-standing pattern and which trends might be turning.

KEY TRENDS

Draw isn’t the be all and end all but it’s worth noting that 40% of winners this century have come from the lowest 3 stalls
The winner will come from the Top 5 in the market but be wary of the favourite
MUST hold an OR and of at least 109 but unlikely to be the highest rated runner
Marginal preference to runners who have NOT run this season
Respect last time out winners who did NOT run at Newmarket (either course) last time out
Has won 60% or more of their races
Has won over at least 7 furlongs
Has recorded an RPR of 111 or higher

Focused Trends

STALL

Lowest three stalls – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
Highest three stalls – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)

There’s not too much by way of a stall bias although 40% of winners have come from the lowest three stalls and that is consistent across both the last 25 and last 10 renewals.

PRICE

Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
2^nd favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
Top 5 in the betting – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)

Favourites are loss makers across both periods in this contest, but 2^nd favourites show a £3.5 profit from the last 25 and £10.50 from the last 10 (105% ROI)

Backing every runner from the market position 1 through 5 will not make or break you looking at the last 25 renewals but in the last 10 renewals it shows a £22 profit and has found 9 winners. The biggest loss maker in that bucket is favourites so you can improve the figures to near £30 if you exclude them and it still finds 8 of the last 10 winners

OFFICIAL RATING (since 2011)

Winners with an OR of 109 or higher – 15/15 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)

Ratings are only run from 2011 because of multiple winners prior who didn’t hold an official mark but it’s a clear line that A) your horse should hold an OR and B) that OR should be at least 109. Only 2 winners from the last 10 held the highest OR in the race and just 6 this century

LAST TIME OUT

Won last time out – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last ran 121-365 days ago – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)

Last time out winners do hold the highest strike-rate but they’re loss makers to back blind from the last 25 renewals but are profitable from the last 10.

Around 70% of winners across both periods measured last ran 121-365 days ago and while in the last 25 renewals those runners have twice the strike-rate of runners who ran in the last 30 days, they’re not profitable to back blind and they only just outperform more recent runners in the last 10 renewals. This might just be a turning trend, or a trend that has already turned.

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at Newmarket (Rowley) – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
Winners who had WON at Newmarket (Rowley) – 7/11 (64%) & 3/6 (50%)
Winners who last ran at Newmarket (Rowley) – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)

Lots to try and fathom from course form even if we only have a limited amount of career form for these 3-year-olds but while course form must be respected it’s interesting that last time out winners who did NOT run at this course show a 101% ROI from the last 10, and 24% from the last 25 whereas those who did show a -69% ROI in the last decade and -61% from the last 25

FORM

Had won 60% or more of their races – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
Had run at 8-furlongs – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
Had won over 7-furlongs or further – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
Peak RPR of 111 or higher – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
Has won a Group race – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)

From the last 25 renewals 20 winners had won 60% or more of their races and backing these blind alone shows a 20% ROI to SP and 83% to Betfair SP. A similar picture is painted for the last 10 with 23% and 68% ROI’S respectively to SP and Betfair SP.

Far more recent winners had already raced at 8-furlongs but all bar 3 winners from the last 25 had won over 7-furlongs or further so that’s non-negotiable.

Most winners had recorded a peak RPR of 111 or higher and equally as many across each period had won a Group race before now.

TRAINERS WITH 2 OR MORE WINS BOTH THIS CENTURY AND THE LAST DECADE

Aidan O’Brien – 9 & 3
Charlie Appleby – 3 & 3
Andrew Balding – 2 & 2

Aidan O’Brien is winless in this contest since 2019 with Charlie Appleby responsible for 3 of the last 4 winners

SIGNIFICANT RACES ON LAST RUN (and last year the Guineas winner took in the race)

Futurity Trophy – 4 winners (2019)
Greenham Stakes – 3 winners (2023)
Dewhurst Stakes – 3 winners (2016)
Craven Stakes – 2 winners (2004)
National Stakes – 2 winners (2014)
Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes – 2 winners (2021)

Ruling Court who took this race 12 months ago is the only horse to come straight from the Acomb so while that route has a 100% strike rate but not many would attempt that. The Futurity, the Greenham and the Dewhurst Stakes are still the big 3.

HONOURS ROLL (This Century):

2025 – Ruling Court (USA)
2024 – Notable Speech (GB)
2023 – Chaldean (GB)
2022 – Coroebus (IRE)
2021 – Poetic Flare (IRE)
2020 – Kameko (USA)
2019 – Magna Grecia (IRE)
2018 – Saxon Warrior (JPN)
2017 – Churchill (IRE)
2016 – Galileo Gold (GB)
2015 – Gleneagles (IRE)
2014 – Night Of Thunder (IRE)
2013 – Dawn Approach (IRE)
2012 – Camelot (GB)
2011 – Frankel (GB)
2010 – Makfi (GB)
2009 – Sea The Stars (IRE)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (USA)
2007 – Cockney Rebel (IRE)
2006 – George Washington (IRE)
2005 – Footstepsinthesand (GB)
2004 – Haafhd (GB)
2003 – Refuse To Bend (IRE)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE)
2001 – Golan (IRE)
2000 – Kings Best (USA)