A cracking race with many horses on the honours roll on multiple occasions. I’ve looked at every running this century and compared to the last 10, to see if I can profile what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- It’s costly to follow 4 and 5-year-olds blind
- Likely to have run 16-30 days ago and preferably won last time out
- Not sporting headgear
- Will have run and won over 14 furlongs or further before now
- Is not required to be a previous Group 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 4/26 (15%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 4yo – 8/26 (31%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 5yo – 5/26 (19%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 7/26 27%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 2/26 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
In the last decade, 3-year-olds and 7-year-olds have been profitable to back blind but this century it’s been 6-year-olds and 7-year-olds who show a profit blind.
ODDS
- First favourites – 10/26 (39%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Top 3 in the market – 20/26 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
It’s not profitable to back favourites blind but they still do hold the best strike rate. Ultimately, they’re performing just behind market expectations. You don’t need to stray too far from the front of the market with every winner in the last decade coming from the front 5 in the betting. The bulk of those come from the top 3 in the market.
LAST TIME OUT
- Last ran 16-30 days ago – 15/26 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Won last time out – 16/26 (62%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Raced in Ireland last time out – 12/26 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most winners last ran between 16 and 30 days ago with the bulk of those winning last time out too. Given this is the Irish St Leger, it might be a little surprising that more winners than not, did NOT run in Ireland last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at The Curragh – 19/26 (73%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at The Curragh – 15/26 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had run but NOT won at The Curragh – 4/26 (15%) & 2/10 (20%)
Most winners of this race had already been to The Curragh before now and over three-quarters of those had won here too. Course form, and winning course form isn’t essential, and it wouldn’t make money if you simply followed that blind.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN over 14-furlongs or further – 23/26 (89%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON over 14-furlongs or further – 21/23 (91%) & 9/9 (100%)
Unlike the British equivalent, this race being open to all ages means that it’s more acceptable that most winners had race at 14 furlongs or further before now and, in turn, most had also won over 14 furlongs or further before now. We’ve had quite a few names on this honour roll multiple times, so they’re ticking that box time after time.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 9/26 (35%) & 5/10 (50%)
We’ve had many horses who have won this race more than once, so it’s quite surprising that only half of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1 and just over a third of winners this century could also claim that box being ticked. Clearly good horses win this race; they may just not have had the chance to show that at the highest level before now.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who did NOT sport any headgear – 19/26 (73%) & (8/10 (80%)
There are horses who have won this race while sporting headgear, but the overall profile of a St Leger winner would suggest you want a horse who is not sporting headgear.