The 2025 Ryder Cup begins at the notorious Bethpage Black in New York on Friday as Europe attempt to retain golf’s biggest team prize up against an intense, patriotic American crowd. We give our best tips for some of the major markets below, including the correct score and top overall points scorers.
Tip #1 – 1pt each USA to Win 15.5-12.5 (11/1), USA to Win 16-12 (12/1), USA to Win 16.5-11.5 (12/1)
The Miracle at Medinah felt as miraculous as its name even at the time Martin Kaymer sunk the match-winning putt to retain the Ryder Cup for Europe in 2012. However, it looks an even greater outlier given the passage of the trophy since then: five Ryder Cups, five home victories, and none closer than a final score of 16.5-11.5.
Sometimes the overall score does not do justice to some briefly dicey situations in-play for those hosts. The US ultimately came clear for a 17-11 success in 2016, but it was 10.5-9.5 after Europe had claimed three of the opening four singles matches on Sunday, while it took until Tommy Fleetwood clinched the 11th of 12 singles matches in Rome in 2023 for Europe to officially claim victory. Rome was seen as a dominant success for Europe, but it may have been the closest of the Ryder Cups since Medinah.
All of this is to say that our idea of a close contest may be skewed by that extraordinary afternoon in 2012 and the 2025 renewal might just be the tightest on paper since then. Europe have been able to name 11 of the 12 men who played in Rome, with Rasmus Hojgaard taking over from twin brother Nicolai to ensure a stability that could stand them in very good stead.
Conversely, home field bias, coupled with some underestimated advantages in quality, should sway this in favour of the USA to win the Ryder Cup. They have the best player on the planet by some distance in Scottie Scheffler, as well as holders of seven of the last eight major championships due to the presence of JJ Spaun, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau.
A lot will boil down to Scheffler having a strong week, but unlike in Rome, where the entire US team was underprepared and undercooked, the preceding weeks have gone to plan and this course should suit Scheffler’s metronomic game ideally. Perhaps in the competition directly below their best players, Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, Europe holds a slight edge, but every US captain’s pick has a point to prove to Keegan Bradley, who could easily have selected himself to play, as well as a febrile home audience baying for opposition blood.
The margins are closer, but going with the tried and tested home team approach looks sensible from a betting standpoint and backing every score between 15.5-12.5 and 16.5-11.5 looks the way to go. Even the widest of those scores would make it the joint closest Ryder Cup since 2012.
Tip #2 – 2pts Scottie Scheffler to be the Top Overall Points Scorer (5/1), 1pt e/w Russell Henley to be the Top Overall Points Scorer (16/1 – 4 places)
There is often greater cause to back a European player in the Top Overall Points market as they are more likely to play all five matches. Then again, since the pomp of Tiger Woods, there has been no more dominant force in the game as Scottie Scheffler in 2025 and things will likely have to dive as far south as in Rome for him to not play all five matches.
Woods was never at his best in Ryder Cup matchplay, perhaps his single-minded approach ultimately costing him in foursomes and fourballs. Scheffler is far more grounded though and comes into this event off the back of a victory just two weeks ago on the PGA Tour, a stark contrast to a chasm of time off between his last tournament and the Rome Ryder Cup in 2023. Ultimately, if he plays, he should be expected to win three out of his five matches, possibly needing only a half in his other two to land the spoils of this market.
Similarly, if he does not play all five, then either something is going catastrophically wrong for the US, in which case this bet has gone down anyway, or the US is in such complete control that it will become a battle to escape a dead heat among US contestants. In even a remotely competitive year in which the US hold sway, 5/1 about Scheffler looks good value.
It would appear that his likeliest playing companion in the partnership formats will be Russell Henley, and it is also worth backing the humbler world number four at 16/1 each-way. Even if Scheffler plays all four sessions in the opening two days, Henley may not join him for all of them, but they would only need to make a successful partnership to begin with for Henley to be odds-on to play at least four sessions overall.
If they keep winning, then Scheffler and Henley could well be tied going into singles for the Ryder Cup’s golden boot. At more than three times the price to potentially only match Scheffler in that final format, he could be a saver if Scottie were to meet an inspired European in the singles round.
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