The jumps season is almost over for another year, but before that we have three fantastic days racing at the Aintree Grand National Festival. The opening day on Thursday features some big races and some of the best NH horses around, including Nicky Henderson’s monster Constitution Hill.
Racing expert Dave Young (AKA @cheltmentalFB on Twitter) gives us his through-the-card selections for the opening day of the three-day Festival.
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13:45 – Manifesto Novices Chase
Good looking race this to kick off the Grand National Meeting and the market will tell you that the winner comes from Banbridge, Saint Roi & Stage Star. The former skipped Cheltenham due to the ground although this is the same horse who was a well beaten favourite at this track last season. Stage Star won well at Cheltenham but tactically may have run better than others which I’m not sure he’ll get away with again here, but he could.
For me, SAINT ROI, a County Hurdle winner and one time well fancied Champion Hurdler, has shown he’s above average and I think he’s been crying out for a step up in trip. He started over 2m 3f when hurdling for Willie Mullins but a well beaten 1/3 favourite. At the prices he’s the play all day and VISIONARIAN was not too far behind him at Christmas over the shorter trip, so while I don’t expect him to reverse that form I think he could run well at a price.
Selection – SAINT ROI
Outsider – VISIONARIAN
14:20 – 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle
ZENTA looks the clear pick in this race after her impressive third at Cheltenham on just her second run for Willie Mullins. She travelled strongly and this better ground will help her so while it might not be a bad race, it’s much easier than last month and on these terms I can’t see her beat.
GREYVAL for Fergal O’Brien was incredibly impressive at Huntingdon so this is a big step up but she deserves her chance although at the prices she’s not quite the outsider she probably ought to be but she has to be mentioned.
Selection – ZENTA
Outsider – GREYVAL
14:55 – Aintree Bowl
This looks like it could be one of the races of the season with 3 horses rated in excess of 170 including a Gold Cup winner in A Plus Tard, a King George winner in Bravemansgame and Shishkin, who looked back to his best on his penultimate start. Throw in Ahoy Senor and Conflated, and you really do have an incredible race.
Depending how Bravemansgame has come out of Cheltenham really does shape this race because on this seasons form and recent form he’s the one to beat. Shishkin has questions to answer but could do so now stepping up in trip, while Ahoy Senor was ruthless at this course last season and was running a good race when falling in The Gold Cup and Conflated should be suited to this test more than others.
I’d think that A PLUS TARD going off the same price here as he did in the Gold Cup last month seems strange so he’s going to take my vote in a race I could just as easily sit back and watch. AHOY SENOR is a horse I love so he’d be my idea of the biggest danger considering his love of Aintree.
Selection – A PLUS TARD
Danger – AHOY SENOR
15:30 Aintree Hurdle
This won’t take long because CONSTITUTION HILL is a world above anything else over hurdles right now but of course he’s no price to get stuck into. Sit back and enjoy watching a super-star and save yourself for the rest of Day 1 and the coming days.
Selection – NO BET (Sit back and enjoy Consitution Hill)
16:05 – Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase
A race I always enjoy but rarely get too involved in although I’ve been close a few times with runners at prices so I’ll throw a couple up against the Favourite WINGED LEADER who ought to take all the beating and in fairness doesn’t look a bad price currently.
AMI DESBOIS is a 13yo now so up against it facing fresher legs but his form last season wasn’t bad and he’s still living the game so despite a quiet season and probably want a stiffer test I think he’s worth a mention a big price. The other one at a price is DENTA DES OBEAUX who couldn’t have won any easier the last day and has solid point form dating back a couple of years now. He’s had a long break before this season so not your conventional 10yo coming in here and I think he should be half the price he is.
Selection – WINGED LEADER
Lively Outsiders – AMI DESBOIS, DENTA DES OBEAUX
16:40 – Red Rum Handicap Chase
Good looking race this but I’m happy to play two against the field with last years runner up DANCING ON MY OWN & HATCHER. The former comes here in a better light than 12 months ago having not had such a hard race at Cheltenham and Rachel on board is another plus. Hatcher may appear the stable second string but he carries a light weight thanks to Third Time Lucki and he’s effectively running off a 20lb lower mark than when he would have won if not for falling back April last year.
Selections – DANCING ON MY OWN & HATCHER
17:15 – Mares Bumper
Typically backing Willies in the Bumper isn’t a bad way to go but I was so taken with SEEYOUINMYDREAMS rules debut that I have to follow her in here. While Paul Nichols hasn’t won this race he has done well in the open Aintree Festival bumper with 2 wins in the last three running’s and I think this is a serious mare he has on his hands.
Selection – SEEYOUINMYDREAMS
Take a look at Dave’s Runner-By-Runner preview to the feature race of the Festival – The Grand National. He gives a verdict on every runner, including a 1-5 star rating for each horse:
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