Top tipster Andrew Mount has six bets across five races on Saturday at prices up to 33-1. Check out his thoughts below, with selections available to back via Paddy Power who are providing £40 in free bets when you bet £10 on racing.
MOLLS MEMORY – (1.30 Ascot, 0.5pt each-way, 16/)
MOLLS MEMORY surprised me when scoring at Haydock on her penultimate start as that was the first time she’d ever won on a turning course. Her patient style was at a big disadvantage at Salisbury last time and though only sixth of 12 she did second-best of those to come from off the pace.
Fourth-placed Migration, best of the hold-up horses that day, won his next two starts and is now rated 12lb higher. She hasn’t raced since that June 23rd effort but has probably just been waiting for her favoured soft conditions. Her record on straight tracks on good to soft or softer going reads 2411119 (4-7), with the fourth coming in a 20-runner handicap and the ninth-place excusable as she reportedly burst a blood vessel. She won a big-field 6f handicap on her only previous course visit and her ability to handle ground and track might be more important than the unfavourable terms on which she meets some of her rivals (she’d be getting weight from several of them were this a handicap).
One Master was rated 75 when winning this race in 2017 (the third, Eternally, carried the same weight despite being rated 31lb her superior). The other downside is that she’s a four-year-old in a race traditionally dominated by the classic generation but filtering speed figures on soft or heavy going puts her a narrow second of the 16 runners and she could be well drawn in stall 13 of 16.
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ATAVIQUE – (1.45 Newmarket, 0.5pt each-way, 28/1)
ATAVIQUE impressed at the other course here in late July when the only winner on the day to come from well off the pace and has run respectably in defeat since.
She has form in the mud and, if the weather forecast is correct, the headwind will make her patient style an asset. Her stall 1 draw could also help and she looks overpriced.
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QUICKTHORN – (2.40 Ascot, 2pt win, 9/2)
QUICKTHORN can be forgiven July’s Group 3 York defeat as it looked like a prep for the following month’s Ebor and he was ridden patiently in a race where it paid to be prominent.
That run aside, his record since gelded reads 1121 (3-4), with the defeat in the £300,000 to the winner Ebor itself. He likes this track, handles deep ground and is tactically versatile.
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AINSDALE – (3.15 Ascot, 0.5pt each-way, 33/1)
Glen Shiel holds obvious claims in this Group 3 contest but, at the available prices, I like the claims of AINSDALE, who seems to excel at this time of year.
Karl Burke’s four-year-old has form figures in October of 111141 (4-5), compared to 42324832684 (0-11) in other months. The more rain the better and his stall 13 of 14 draw could prove advantageous.
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VENTURA DIAMOND – (3.15 Ascot, 0.5pt each-way, 33/1)
VENTURA DIAMOND is another runner to play at a big price. She thrived in the mud at this time last year, catching the eye when a best-of-the-high-draws 40-1 sixth of 21 in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar before wins on heavy ground at Leicester and Newmarket.
She’s yet to get her head in front this year but this is her first 2021 outing over a stiff 6f in the mud and she could surprise.
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CASTLEGRACE PADDY – (3.20 Gowran Park, 1pt win, 10/1)
CASTLEGRACE PADDY has a fine record when fresh, recording form figures of 1111412 (5-7) over hurdles or fences when rested for more than eight weeks. His seasonal debut record reads 4111 (3-4), with the defeat coming in a bumper on his Rules debut.
He remains open to plenty of improvement over this 2m4f trip. Put The Kettle On is a wonderful horse but she may be vulnerable going right-handed on his reappearance – her record left-handed stands at 11211131 (6-8) for a profit of £34.50 to a £1 level stake at SP but she’s three from nine this way around for a loss of £2.13.
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Today’s Best Bets
MOLLS MEMORY – 0.5pt each-way – 1.30 Ascot (16-1 bet365, four places, 14-1 generally)
ATAVIQUE – 0.5pt each-way – 1.45 Newmarket (28-1 Betfred, 25-1 generally)
QUICKTHORN – 2pts win – 2.40 Ascot (9-2 Betfred, 4-1 generally)
AINSDALE – 0.5pt each-way – 3.15 Ascot (33-1 generally)
VENTURA DIAMOND – 0.5pt each-way – 3.15 Ascot (33-1 generally)
CASTLEGRACE PADDY – 1pt win – 3.20 Gowran Park (10-1 generally)
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