Top tipster Andrew Mount has six bets at Kempton, Ascot and Haydock on a typically busy Saturday
CRYSTAL CASQUE – (3.15 Kempton, 1pt each-way – 12/1)
CRYSTAL CASQUE is drawn out wide in stall 13 of 14 but they often get racing too far out in this London Mile Series Final and set things up for a high-drawn closer.
Simply betting all runners draw 12 or higher but have found six winners from 36 in the past ten years (nine renewals, as the race didn’t take place last year) for a profit of £68.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Angus Villiers gets on well with him – form figures of 114321 (3-6) – and he’s an each-way price.
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HAPPY ROMANCE – (3.30 Haydock, 1pt each-way – 18/1)
HAPPY ROMANCE Improved as the season progressed last year, winning three times from mid-July until early September before her close-up fourth to Alcohol Free in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes on her final start.
It’s possible that she could be following the same pattern this term, recording a career-best RPR when landing a Group 3 at Newbury on July 17. She likes quick ground and looks overpriced despite being drawn away from the pace horses.
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GARRUS – (3:30pm Haydock, 0.5pts each-way – 40/1)
GARRUS is the only hold-up horse in the bottom half of the draw and should get a good tow into the race on the far side. He was only eighth when I bet him at Newmarket in the July Cup but has won in France since and hasn’t had many opportunities over this trip on his favoured fast ground.
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SILVER SAMURAI – (3.45 Ascot, 1pt win – 12/1)
SILVER SAMURAI and TOP SECRET ran in the same race at Newmarket on July 30th and both were inconvenienced by being ridden patiently on a track that was massively favouring pace. Silver Samurai (11-4f) finished last of six and Top Secret (3-1) ran a blinder to finish a neck to the all-the-way winner.
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TOP SECRET – (3:45pm Ascot, 1.5pts win – 6/1)
Silver Samurai bounced back with a solid 10-1 third in a 7f handicap at Newbury to Aratus (winner again since) and Top Secret was beaten by a nose in a 1m handicap at the same venue where switching to the stands’ side rail may have been the difference between defeat and victory. I want to side with the pair again today, despite a concern about the lack of pace in this race. Maxi Boy could get a soft lead but it’s still difficult to make the running in handicaps at his venue.
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ROYAL SCIMITAR – (4.55 Ascot, 1pt win – 5/2)
The showers before racing didn’t aid the cause of ROYAL SCIMITAR – my strong fancy for the Listed Hopeful Stakes at Newmarket last week – but it was chasing the strong early pace that really cost him. Stop that race at halfway and the first four home were in the last four places and they clearly went too quick for the conditions.
Royal Scimitar beat only one home and will be happier back in handicap company on quicker ground. He also looks to have the best of the draw in stall 8 of 8 and is worth another chance.
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Today’s Best Bets
Crystal Casque – 1pt each-way – 3.15 Kempton (12-1 generally, Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power paying five places)
Happy Romance – 1pt each-way – 3.30 Haydock (18-1 William Hill, 16-1 generally)
Garrus – 0.5pt each-way – 3.30 Haydock (40-1 generally, Betfair, Paddy Power paying four places)
Silver Samurai – 1pt win – 3.45 Ascot (12-1 generally)
Top Secret – 1.5pts win – 3.45 Ascot (6-1 generally)
Royal Scimitar – 1pt win – 4.55 Ascot (5-2 William Hill was the only price at the time of writing)
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