Top tipster Andrew Mount has four bets on Boxing Day, including a 33-1 shot for the big race at Kempton. Check these out below, alongside an exclusive Virgin Bet offer that provides new customers with £20 in free bets.
ANDYS FLAME – (1.45 Leopardstown, 1pt each-way, 16/1)
ANDYS FLAME was a non-runner when I napped him at Thurles on December 19, as he reportedly suffered a stone bruise and I’m going to recommend him today based on the strength of his Fairyhouse maiden hurdle fifth of 15 last month.
The track was massively favouring frontrunners that day and the 125-1 shot did really well to finish 14 lengths behind the winner, doing best of those to come from off the pace. This point-to-point winner might need further in time but, at around 16-1, he’s too big a price to ignore on his handicap debut.
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UNEXPECTED PARTY – (2.45 Wetherby, 2.5pt win, 6/5)
There didn’t look to be much in the way of early pace in the 2m5f Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting and it was hugely disappointing that UNEXPECTED PARTY, never far away when scoring impressively here at Wetherby on his comeback, was switched to patient tactics by Bridget Andrews.
The 3-1 favourite could never get in a blow behind the always-prominent Gowel Road, going down by two and a half lengths in second. He returns to Wetherby, Harry Skelton is back on board and he looks miles ahead of his current handicap mark of 124.
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SOLDIER’S MINUTE – (3.00 Wolverhampton, 1.5pt win, 15/2)
SOLDIER’S MINUTE has a little bit to find at the weights with some of his rivals but the market seems to have overreacted and he’s worth a bet. He could only finish a half-length third of four when the 5-4 favourite for a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield last week but he was switched to challenge on the ‘dead’ rail on a day it was a huge advantage to race wide.
The two that beat him came down the middle of the track and he should get a good tow into the race from Lord Of The Lodge. He ran well on his only previous course visit, finishing third after failing to settle from a poor wide draw.
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MISTER FISHER – (3.05 Kempton, 1pt each-way, 33/1)
One of the most significant factors to consider when assessing the King George is course form, yet it is often overlooked by pundits and punters. Those with long memories may recall the 2017 renewal when I tipped Double Shuffle and Tea For Two based on this angle, at 100-1 and 33-1 respectively.
The former was beaten by just one length into second place (SP 50-1) and the last-named ran third. MISTER FISHER is two from two at this venue – a bumper and a novice hurdle – and his only other run on a right-handed track saw him finish second by a neck to Frodon over 2m6.5f at Sandown last spring, yet he’s several times the price of that rival.
Of similar importance is his need for smallish field. He has struggled in traffic on occasions but if we only consider his form in fields of ten or fewer runners his record becomes 112111U2 (5-8). The unseat came at Aintree over 3m1f last spring when still in contention in the Betway Bowl. He was only a 15-2 shot that day and bounced back with that good second to Frodon. He lacks a run this term but has plenty of form when fresh and at the prices is worth chancing. Confidence will increase if it stays dry.
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Today’s Best Bets
ANDYS FLAME – 1pt each-way – 1.45 Leopardstown (16-1 Betfair, Paddy Power, both six places, 14-1 Sky Bet, seven places)
UNEXPECTED PARTY – 2.5pts win – 2.45 Wetherby (6-5 Sky Bet)
SOLDIER’S MINUTE – 1.5pts win – 3.00 Wolverhampton (15-2 Betfair, Paddy Power, 7-1 generally)
MISTER FISHER – 1pt each-way – 3.05 Kempton (33-1 generally, Sky Bet offer four places at 28-1)
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