Top tipster Andrew Mount has four bets across three races at Newcastle and Nottingham on Thursday
HARTSWOOD – (3:10pm Newcastle, 1pt win – 11/1)
HARTSWOOD beat only a couple home in the Zetland Gold Cup last time but his patient running style was at a disadvantage and that was also his first run over 1m2f. The patiently-ridden fifth and seventh from that Class 2 Redcar handicap have won since and the switch to the all-weather could suit this dual turf winner. Progeny of GARSWOOD are showing a profit of £49.12 to a £1 level stake at SP on Tapeta, including Newcastle figures of seven from 34 (20.6% strike-rate, +£41.38).
Richard Fahey has been responsible for seven of those 34 runners, with one winning (16-1) and a further four placing (33-1, 16-1, 5-2 and 9-4). The drop back to 1m will suit, all four previous winners of his race were four-year-olds (he’s only one of two in the seven-runner line-up) and his trainer has had a 10-1 winner, 7-1 half-length third and 6-1 third (beaten by seven lengths but did best of those to chase the strong early pace) from three runners to complete the course in this race.
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CROWNTHORPE – (3.10 Newcastle, 1pt win – 7/1)
Richard Fahey also saddles CROWNTHORPE today, fancied when unseating in the 2019 renewal. His other two course runs produced a 10-1 win off a 1lb higher mark than today’s and a neck second. He’s also worth a bet.
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BELLEVARDE – (3.55 Nottingham, 1.5pts each-way – 6/1)
BELLEVARDE had no luck with the draw at Chepstow last time, finishing fourth from stall 1 of 9 (winner drawn 9) in a race that has already seen the poorly-drawn runner-up and third – Equally Fast and Atty’s Edge – win next time out.
She won’t mind if the forecast showers materialise and is 12lb lower than when successful here in October 2019. The losing run is mounting up but she’s in a Class 6 for the first time in her career and, famous last words, will be hard to keep out of the frame from her useful middle draw.
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UNDER FOX – (4.20 Newcastle, 1pt win – 10/1
UNDER FOX had little chance from his stall 16 of 17 draw at Redcar last time, doing well to finish seventh in a race dominated by those drawn low (first four drawn 1, 4, 5 and 3, once adjusted for the non-runner).
Fifth-placed Merry Banter, moderately drawn in stall 7, won next time and the sixth, Cometh The Man (stall 12), first home of those drawn in double figures, was beaten by a head in a big field next time. Under Fox has yet to race on the all-weather but his sire gets plenty of winners on Tapeta and the blinkers go on for the first time. Tim Easterby is 21 from 161 (13% strike-rate) for a profit of +£61.63 since 2012 when using this headgear on a handicapper.
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Today’s Best Bets
Hartswood – 1pt win – 3.10 Newcastle (11-1 bet365)
Crownthorpe – 1pt win – 3.10 Newcastle (7-1 bet365)
Bellevarde – 1.5pts each-way – 3.55 Nottingham (6-1 bet365, three places, and 5-1 William Hill, four places, are the only prices so far. Sky Bet will be paying five places when they price up)
Under Fox – 1pt win – 4.20 Newcastle (10-1 William Hill)
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