Top tipster Andrew Mount was in fine form last week and he has six bets on Day One of the Cheltenham Festival
GRUMPY CHARLEY – (1.20 Cheltenham, 1pt each-way – 33/1)
GRUMPY CHARLEY was a huge eyecatcher at Haydock on his debut for Chris Honour in December, keeping on well to finish a 33-1 second to Adrimel in a Class 2 introductory hurdle and pulling 20 lengths clear of the third. On the strength of that, I recommended that we bet him each-way at Newbury next time and he again ran well, finishing just over three lengths behind the winner in a 6-1 fifth. He’s gone three from three since (4-7f, evens fav and 5-4), all at Chepstow on soft or heavy going, and he clocked a fast time when overhauling front-runner Eamon An Cnoic last time. He’s third best on last-time out speed according to Raceform and makes each-way appeal. His sire, Shirocco, is four from 11 with two-mile hurdlers at Cheltenham (two from three at the festival, +£12.50 to a £1 level stake at SP) and a place is far from a forlorn hope.
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MILAN NATIVE – (2.30 Cheltenham, 1pt each-way – 15/2)
Progeny of Milan have a fine record on their first start after wind surgery, landing 15 of their 67 starts over hurdles or fences (22.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £126.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. MILAN NATIVE, winner of the Kim Muir at last year’s Cheltenham festival, has struggled the last twice but the wind operation could spark a revival in the Ultima.
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ONE FOR THE TEAM – (2.30 Cheltenham, 1pt each-way – 13/2)
Nick Williams does well with his handicappers at this meeting, scoring with three of his 30 runners for a profit of £15.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. An each-way approach if often warranted, as eight of the 27 beaten horses were placed (20-1, 16-1, 16-1, 16-1, 14-1, 9-1, 13-2, 9-2) and another was fifth at 33-1 in the Fred Winter when most firms were paying at last five places. ONE FOR THE TEAM disappointed when we backed him in the Sky Bet Chase on his handicap debut last time but the ground was softer than preferred and he wasn’t helped by racing on the inside where it looked badly cut up. His earlier Graded form in races won by Next Destination and Shan Blue suggests his mark of 140 could be on the generous side and he’s worth a bet despite the unwelcome recent rain.
BACK ONE FOR THE TEAM AND GET A RISK-FREE £20 BET
DOLCITA – (3.40 Cheltenham, 0.5pts each-way – 66/1)
I advised a small antepost each-way bet on DOLCITA and I’m topping up at an even bigger price. She would have needed the run after wind surgery when third at Warwick last time and, though beaten by about 15 lengths, I upgraded that effort as her patient style was at a massive disadvantage. She was second to Concertista in the 2m1f mares’ novice last year when trained by Willie Mullins and she can give her old rival a run for her money. I’ve also bet her each-way without the favourite at 33-1 with bet365.
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HOMME PUBLIC – (4.15 Cheltenham, 2pts win – 14/1)
Worst favourite of the day award goes to Saint Sam, who is around 11-2 for the Fred Winter. Willie Mullins has poor record when using a first-time hood in Class 1 hurdles, scoring with just nine of the 73 qualifiers since 2015 (12.3% strike-rate) for a loss of £43.58 to a £1 level stake at SP. Fred Winter winners tend to fit one of two profiles – they won in a lower grade last time (Class 3 or 4) or they finished unplaced in a Class 1 contest. Those who finished second or third in Britain or Ireland last time out are 0-135 in this race (expected winners over five) and that stat wipes out plenty of the market leaders. HOMME PUBLIC clocked a fast time when runner-up to Tinnahalla at Catterick last month on his British debut and has since won impressively in a Class 4 maiden hurdle at Market Rasen. He’s likely to improve for a big field-strong pace scenario and is worth a bet despite shortening in the market since I put him up as the pick in the GG Cheltenham festival video preview last week.
BACK HOMME PUBLIC AND GET A RISK-FREE £20 BET
BALKO SAINT – (4.15 Cheltenham, 1pt win – 33/1)
BALKO SAINT scraped home when we backed him in a Class 4 novice at Wincanton last time but did so in a fast time and wasn’t helped by racing away from the stands’ side rail in the straight. His prominent running style is more of a concern than the 5lb penalty he picked up for that win but he’s drifted to a ridiculous price now and has to be backed as well.
BACK BALKO SAINT AND GET A RISK-FREE £20 BET
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Today’s Best Bets
Grumpy Charley – 1pt each-way – 1.20 Cheltenham (33-1 BetVictor, 28-1 generally)
Milan Native – 1pt each-way – 2.30 Cheltenham (15-2 generally, Sky Bet 7-1 with seven places)
One For The Team – 1pt each-way – 2.30 Cheltenham (13-2 generally)
Dolcita – 0.5pts each-way (in addition to the 0.5pts each-way advised antepost) – 3.40 Cheltenham (66-1 bet365, William Hill)
Homme Public – 2pts win – 4.15 Cheltenham (14-1 generally)
Balko Saint – 1pt win – 4.15 Cheltenham (33-1 bet365)
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