Top tipster Andrew Mount enjoyed place returns from Great Bear (13-2 from 11-1) and Whiskey Sour (20-1) on Tuesday and has three selections for Wednesday’s racing
BALGAIR – 1.00 Ascot, 2pts win – 8/1)
BALGAIR has a good record on his seasonal debuts – doing best of the hold-up horses when third over a straight mile at Yarmouth last term, scoring at odds of 13-2 over the same course and distance in 2019, going down by a head after failing to settle over 7f at Brighton in 2018, doing best of those to come from the rear when mid-division (also hampered) at Epsom in 2017 and winning at 20-1 on his racecourse debut in 2016. Throw in his liking for a straight mile, need for a strong pace (three of his eight rivals in this apprentice handicap can make the running), in-form trainer (Tom Clover is 3-11 in the past fortnight) and the booking of Laura Pearson and it all points to solid claims in Ascot’s opener.
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MISS BELLA BRAND – 4.05 Wolverhampton, 1pt win – 12/1)
There looks to be plenty of early pace in this 6f handicap and the race could be set up nicely for a closer. MISS BELLA BRAND has the ideal breeding for Wolverhampton and found only one too good when 50-1 here on her racecourse debut for Nick Littmoden. She bombed out over today’s course and distance next (reportedly never travelling) but bounced back with runner-up efforts at Kempton and Lingfield, the latest in February of this year. She ran another solid race on her debut for Ilka Gansera-Leveque at the same venue last time, keeping on into a 25-1 third, and though her stamina still remains unproven she’s worth chancing at double-figure odds on her handicap debut.
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HAN SOLO BERGER – 4.30 Ascot, 2pts win – 5/1)
There are several different ways to interpret the form of HAN SOLO BERGER and I think I’ve subscribed to them all over the years. Is he simply best in small fields? Probably. He’s won seven of his 23 starts in fields of 11 or fewer runners (+£10.00 to a £1 level stake at SP) whereas he’s 0-13 in larger line-ups. Is he simply best at the minimum trip of five furlongs? Probably. He’s five from 25 at this trip compared to two from 11 over six furlongs or further. Does he exhibit the OXO pattern (good run, bad run, good run etc). Probably. He has a poor record immediately following a win and is 0-15 for Chris Wall on his first start back after a win or placed effort. He was only sixth in Arecibo’s race at Newmarket the other day but his 5f record for his current yard when returned to the track quickly after an unplaced effort reads 11131 (4-5). Whatever the interpretation of his form there are plenty of ticks in boxes today – 5f, small field, recent run (15 days) on the back of an unplaced effort and a course and distance that favours his (usually) patient running style. I don’t normally recommend multiple bets but the double with Balgair comes to 62-1 with bet365 at the time of writing and that’s way too big.
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Today’s Best Bets
Balgair – 2pts win – 1.00 Ascot (8-1 bet365, 7-1 William Hill)
Miss Bella Brand – 1pt win – 4.05 Wolverhampton (12-1 generally)
Han Solo Berger – 2pts win – 4.30 Ascot (6-1 bet365, 5-1 William Hill)
1pt each-way double – Balgair/Han Solo Berger (8-1 and 6-1 bet365)
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