Andrew Mount has two tips to follow as the Welsh Racing Festival begins at Chepstow on Friday 10th October…
Posted: 4.20pm, Thursday, October 9th
1.57 Chepstow – HIGH TEA (1pt e/w – 16/1 bet365)
Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls do well with early-season break returners and simply backing all runners from the yard in the October-December period, since 2018, who were returning from a break of 150 days or longer would have found 62 winners from 254 bets (24.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £62.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£103.62 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Point-to-point winner HIGH TEA shaped with promise om his stake debut in mid-April, finishing a 9-1 fourth of 13 in a Ffos Las maiden hurdle when ridden by stable conditional jockey Nathan Andrews (claimed 10lb), hanging left-handed in the straight but still clocking a useful speed figure. Tom Bellamy takes over today and the six-year-old can reward each-way support.
3.30 Newmarket – RESPOND (1.5pt win – 11/4 generally)
Eight of the last ten winners of the Old Rowley Cup were ridden patiently in their prep race and backing all 67 qualifiers returned a profit of £3.33 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£17.82 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). The expected number of winners, based on their prices, was 4.38 (Actual over expected score of 1.83). This year’s qualifiers are WINE DARK SEA, IVATT, MINHAD, MUNSIF and RESPOND with the last-named most interesting given that his hold-up run last time out came in a Class 2 handicap. Only 36 runners have matched that profile in the past ten seasons and seven of them won for a profit of £21.33 at SP (expected winners = 3.05, A/E = 2.30). Andrew Balding’s gelding took a step forward when landing a 1m2f Haydock maiden on his penultimate start and built on that with a close-up third over the same trip at Doncaster when failing to settle in rear division and doing best of those to come from off the pace. The step up to 1m4f looks set to bring about further improvement.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.57 Chepstow – HIGH TEA (1pt e/w – 16/1 bet365)
3.30 Newmarket – RESPOND (1.5pt win – 11/4 generally)
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Friday, 10th October
Andrew’s Angles – Key Stats & Trends for Newmarket’s Dewhurst Saturday
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