Sandown’s Tingle Creek meeting gets underway on Friday with Grade 2 action, but Andrew heads off to Newcastle for his best bets…
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Posted: 7:56am, Friday, December 6th
5.20 Newcastle – DRAGON ICON (0.5pt ew – 11/1 William Hill, 10/1 bet365, both four places)
Yesterday when I was researching this column it looked as though we were in for a very strong headwind at Newcastle tonight and I was all set to advise a small each-way bet on Bless Him, who loves to come from well off the pace. However, with the wind direction having shifted (see 6.50 for more info) I’ve deserted him in favour of Roger Varian’s DRAGON ICON, who looks nicely drawn in stall 13 of 14 to track pace angle Silent Move (stall 14), drawn in the next-door stall. The four-year-old has yet to race on Tapeta but is two from six on Polytrack and, being by Lope De Vega, is certainly bred for the job. His sire’s progeny, aged three to five, have a good record here over 6f or further, landing 47 of their 251 starts since the turf was dug up in favour of Tapeta for a profit of £65.16 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s been gelded since beating only one home as the 7-4 favourite at Kempton on April 1st and his trainer does well with newly-gelded handicappers off a break (150+ days), scoring with 26 of the 102 qualifiers for a profit of £27.10. Four of the qualifiers were Lope De Vega’s and two of them won (17-2 and 6-4).
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6.50 Newcastle – HAPPY TEARS (0.5pt ew with the firms paying four places – 16/1 bet365, 12/1 William Hill)
This morning’s weather forecast suggests that the wind has shifted at Newcastle and rather than a fierce headwind at this evening’s meeting, it looks like a crosswind from the far side or even a tailwind (half behind the runners). That’s made me think long and hard about a bet on hold-up performer HAPPY TEARS but I’m still going to get involved. She fared best of those ridden patiently when fifth at Chelmsford last time and also emerged best of the closers when third at Bath on her penultimate start. The three-year-old remains open to improvement on only her fifth start for the Kublers and I like the stall 11 draw and removal of Richard Kingscote in favour of Luke Morris. The switch to Tapeta for the first time is a potential source of improvement for the daughter of Dandy Man, whose progeny have a solid record here, including 81 winners from 702 bets since the beginning of 2018 for a profit of £132.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. The yard’s only previous representative of Dandy Man to run here was Arishka, a 22-1 front-running second in a 6f handicap on her course debut before a wide-margin 8-1 win when cut back to 5f and ridden with more restraint on her next trip to Gosforth Park.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
5.20 Newcastle – DRAGON ICON (0.5pt ew – 11/1 William Hill, 10/1 bet365, both four places)
6.50 Newcastle – HAPPY TEARS (0.5pt ew with the firms paying four places – 16/1 bet365, 12/1 William Hill)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Friday, 6th December 2024.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Front Runners Are Strongly Favoured at Leicester
We are often told that certain tracks favour front-runners, but hurdle and chase courses can ride very differently, and we can’t always group these races together when considering the ideal running style for a particular venue. Leicester is a case in point, and I want to use this article to examine what’s required to win…
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