The week begins with Andrew Mount providing his top tips across the cards.
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Posted: 5.10pm, Sunday, July 28th
7.05 Windsor – INDIAN CREAK (1pt win – 10/1 William Hill)
The inaccuracy of official going descriptions was in the spotlight at the weekend when Aidan O’Brien suggested that the ground was much slower than advertised for Auguste Rodin in the King George and looking at the form of INDIAN CREAK it’s easy to reach the conclusion that he needs good to soft or softer going, as four of his six wins have come on such a surface. However, Proform’s going allowances, based on race times, suggest that approximately 50% of official going descriptions are inaccurate and using those to look at Indian Creak’s form shows that five of his wins have come on good ground and only one on soft. More important to Jack Channon’s seven-year-old is the size of the field, the track and the trip. When racing in fields of nine or fewer runners, over trips of 5f-6f, at Epsom or Windsor only, his record reads 112121314 (5-9) for a profit of £27.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. He was a little underwhelming at Epsom last time but is three from four at Windsor in small-field sprints and has scored twice when Rose Dawes has taken over in the saddle from David Probert. The early market looks to have over-reacted to his latest effort and he’s worth a small interest. Windsor are like to put plenty of water on and the ground should be suitable.
8.30 Wolverhampton – LEVEL UP (1pt win – 12/1 bet365)
The Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton behaves very differently in summer when high temperatures can melt the wax binding that holds the track together, causing excessive kickback and giving front-runners a big advantage. The bias to low numbers tends to be even stronger in the warmer months and, in the last 30 days, backing stall 1 blind, regardless of trip, would have found ten winners from 37 bets for a profit of £24.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Stall 2 has weighed in with another seven winners to make it 17 from 37 for the two lowest stalls and LEVEL UP, stall 1, looks the sole 5f handicap. David Evans’ five-year-old looks the sole pace angle and caught the eye at Doncaster last time, doing well to finish sixth under a prominent ride in a race dominated by the closers.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
7.05 Windsor – INDIAN CREAK (1pt win – 10/1 William Hill)
8.30 Wolverhampton – LEVEL UP (1pt win – 12/1 bet365)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Monday, 29th July 2024.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Are Trainers too Set in Their Ways or Can a Leopard Change its Spots?
Having recently discussed the differences in trainer form when a stable passes on to a member of family, Andrew Mount looks into a similar question for this week’s myth busters: can a trainer change their methods to gain further success? Recently, I discussed how a tactical change in the Charlie Johnston yard – more of…
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