It’s the start of a new week and Andrew Mount is here with his best bets for Monday, 7th October 2024, as he looks to kick off on a winning note…
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Posted: 8.50pm, Sunday, October
4.12 Pontefract – WALSINGHAM (1pt win – 3/1 bet365, 5/2 generally)
I took a chance and backed WALSINGHAM at Redcar last time when he made his debut for David O’Meara, but the late drift told a story and the four-year-old, well drawn in stall 2, was soon switched away from the favoured rail by David Nolan, eventually trailing home nine lengths back in fourth. The three who beat him all raced on the ‘golden highway’ and it’s safe to draw a line through that effort. O’Meara has a solid record at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially in turf handicaps with runners who finished in the top four on their stable debut. He’s won with 35 of the 123 qualifiers (28.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £35.11 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 24.83, A/E = 1.41) and he should get a good tow into the race from market rivals Style Of Life and Urban Sprawl (far from certain to appreciate the slower ground).
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8.00 Wolverhampton – SAMATIAN (1pt ew – 28/1 William Hill, 25/1 generally)
Frustrating hurdler SAMATIAN looked to have been campaigned very much with handicaps in mind when mid-division at best at huge prices (200-1 every time) in a trio of novice contests over 1m3f-1m4f at Southwell over the summer and I’m not reading too much into his 66-1 ninth of 13 at Chester on his Flat handicap debut last time. Kim Bailey is 13 from 59 in all-weather handicaps this century for a profit of £47.00 to a £1 level stake at SP, including six from 15 here at Wolverhampton (+£33.75) and the seven-year-old looks primed to take a step forward now handicapping on Tapeta for the first time. He reminds me of the yard’s Blazon, who didn’t progress over jumps after winning a bumper but went on to land seven all-weather handicaps.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
4.12 Pontefract – WALSINGHAM (1pt win – 3/1 bet365, 5/2 generally)
8.00 Wolverhampton – SAMATIAN (1pt ew – 28/1 William Hill, 25/1 generally)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Monday, 7th October 2024.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Always Back an In-Form Filly in the Autumn
One racing cliché that’s often rolled out at this time of year is to “side with fillies in form”. However, you’ll rarely, if ever, hear a pundit or journalist back this up with data so I thought I’d take a closer look to see if this is a profitable punting angle. The following table shows…
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