Andrew Mount goes into a busy Saturday with six best bets across the cards at Ayr and Newbury, including two selections for the Ayr Gold Cup.
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Posted: 2.10pm, Monday, September 15th
1.30 Newbury – FIRST INSTINCT (0.5pt e/w – 15/2 bet365, four places) + KERDOS (0.5pt e/w – 10/1 bet365, four places)
The Beverley Bullet strongly favours early pace and a switch from patient to prominent tactics saw Shagraan (backed from the early 16-1 into 15-2) score comfortably in this year’s renewal on August 30th. The William Haggas -trained FIRST INSTINCT, who dead-heated for fourth place, emerged best of those to come from off the pace and looks worth a bet despite her three wins coming over longer trips (5.5f-6f). Her draw in stall 8 of 11 might be higher than ideal but she should get a good tow into the race from front-runner Rage Of Bamby, drawn nearby in stall 11.
KERDOS is a better statistical fit for this 5f Group 3 contest, being from an Irish sire and drawn low. Stalls 1, 2 and 3 have been responsible seven of the last ten winners and backing all 30 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.08, A/E = 1.72) while those with Irish sires were seven from 33 for a profit of £14.50 (expected winners = 3.86, A/E = 1.81). Clive Cox’s five-year-old also ran in the Beverley Bullet, racing wider than ideal when dead-heating for fourth with First Instinct and three of his four wins have come in the September/October period.
2.25 Ayr – CANDY (0.5pt e/w – 14/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
CANDY tends to perform best in the autumn months, recording form figures of 1114 (3-4) in the September-October period, with the sole defeat coming when 28-1 for a 19-runner Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time. The last ten winners of the Silver Cup prepped in a Class 2 handicap and the Richard Spencer yard has done well in this type of race. The Ardad colt won a 6f nursery at this meeting last year.
2.40 Newbury – DUE TO HENRY (0.5pt e/w – 20/1 bet365, four places)
DUE TO HENRY fits the stats for the 1m2f Dubai Duty Free Handicap, being aged four or younger and dawn in stall 5 or lower. The 35 qualifiers in the past ten years produced seven winners for a profit of £32.50 to a £1 level stake at SP, with six more finishing second (33-1, 12-1, 10-1, 11-2, 11-2 and 7-2) and seven more running third or fourth. The six qualifiers who made the running produced two winners (22-1 and 9-2) and two seconds (33-1 and 7-2) and Eve Johnson Houghton’s four-year-old looks the likely pace angle. He trailed home last of nine at Chester on his latest start but probably didn’t take to first-time cheekpieces (left off here) and has had a wind operation and eight-week break since. The softer the ground the better and he won the 1m2f Class 4 handicap at this meeting last year.
3.35 Ayr – JUBILEE WALK (1pt e/w – 18/1 bet365, 16/1 generally) & ARAMRAM (1pt e/w – 16/1 generally)
I wrote the following about JUBILEE WALK in Racing & Football Outlook after his reappearance third to Alzahir at Chester on June 28th…
“James Ferguson’s JUBILEE WALK (stall 8 of 9) was well supported for the 6f Manor Car Hire Handicap, despite his wide draw, but got no cover and was very keen approaching the first bend. Ray Dawson soon got him settle in sixth place, but he was several lengths behind the front-runners and couldn’t strike a meaningful blow, keeping on to finish three and a half lengths back in third. This run – his first since wind surgery and first since a gelding operation – came on the back of a 149-day break and there should be improvement to come.”
The winner of that race is now 14lb higher after three subsequent wins and the runner-up, Cinque Verde, has won since. James Ferguson’s four-year-old built on that with a neck second of 19 to Elmonjed at York the following month and wasn’t best drawn when eighth of 20 to Northern Ticker at the same venue, racing on the opposite side of the track to the winner. He bounced back with a 12-1 second of 19 at Ascot last time under 7lb claimer Fred Daly, doing best of those to race up with the pace, and looks backable each-way with Dawson back on board.
ARAMRAM is a good statistical fit for this race and Richard Hannon’s four-year-old tends returned to form with a third place at Kempton earlier this month. He was runner-up to Alfa Kellenic in the Silver Cup at this meeting 12 months ago and his record in the spring/autumn reads 131217222213 (4-12).
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.30 Newbury – FIRST INSTINCT (0.5pt e/w – 15/2 bet365, four places) + KERDOS (0.5pt e/w – 10/1 bet365, four places)
2.25 Ayr – CANDY (0.5pt e/w – 14/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
2.40 Newbury – DUE TO HENRY (0.5pt e/w – 20/1 bet365, four places)
3.35 Ayr – JUBILEE WALK (1pt e/w – 18/1 bet365, 16/1 generally) & ARAMRAM (1pt e/w – 16/1 generally)
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Monday, 15th September
Andrew’s Angles – Vital Gelding Stats And Trainers To Watch
The gelding of racehorses has been in the news this week after leading owner Kia Joorabchian (Amo Racing) claimed that Ralph Beckett had gelded one of his horses in error, nullifying any future stud value the horse in question may have had. Beckett has also achieved Group-race success with a newly gelded runner in recent…
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