A busy Saturday is headlined by Classic season beginning in Ireland. Across the board, Andrew Mount gives you his best bets for your weekend wagers.
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Posted: 2.35pm, Friday, May 23rd
1.30 Goodwood – UNCLE DON (1pt e/w – 7/1 bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
The bias on the straight course was stronger than ever for Redcar’s Two Year Old Trophy meeting last autumn, with the GoingStick reading of 7.0 on the far side (the higher the reading, the faster the ground) but only 5.7 on the stands’ rail, suggesting that high-drawn runners had little chance. It was surprising that only Invictus Gold (stall 20 of 20) was pulled out of the big race but far from surprising to see low draws dominate, with the first six coming from stalls 5, 2, 3, 7, 8 and 4. Richard Fahey’s UNCLE DON (stall 13) emerged best of the high draws in seventh place and was the main one to take from that 6f Listed contest. We didn’t see him again until Newmarket on May 3rd where he finished a creditable six-length fifth of 12, doing second best of the closers after becoming outpaced. MILFORD, fourth best of the closers in a seven-length 50-1 ninth, only went down by a neck in third place when 25-1 for a hot York handicap on his next start. Uncle Don shapes as though the step up to 7f will suit and he’s well drawn in stall 3 of 16 if the ground doesn’t become very soft. One of the other closers from that Newmarket contest – 28-1 seventh PRINCIPALITY – renews rivalry with Uncle Don and could be worth a saver and/or a small reversed forecast play with the selection.
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3.05 Curragh – LETHAL LEVI (1pt win – 17/2 William Hill)
Backing Karl Burke-trained runners in Ireland blind would have found 13 winners from 63 bets (20.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £14.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.09, A/E = 1.61) and the Greenlands Stakes has a been a good race for British trainers over the years. Burke’s LETHAL LEVI is one of four British raiders in this Group 2 contest and the front-running six-year-olds looks set to receive an easy lead. He caught the eye when a close-up fifth of 13 to the progressive More Thunder at Newmarket last time, helping to force a very strong pace which played into the hands of the patiently-ridden winner. That form has already been well advertised, with the runner-up, fourth and sixth going on to finish 1-2-3 at Newbury. Third-placed Two Tribes also gave the form a boost when fourth of 16 from a poor draw at York on his next outing. He won third time out last season and could prove hard to pass. I’m also going to play him in a combination forecast with two of the other British runners – GRAND GREY and JAMES’S DELIGHT, who both ran well against track biases last time.
3.30 Haydock – AMERICAN AFFAIR (2pt win – 5/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
Last year, I wrote up AMERICAN AFFAIR as a likely future Group-race winner and last month’s comeback win over JM JUNGLE at Musselburgh did nothing to sway me from that opinion. However, stall 15 of 17 (once adjusted for the non-runner) prevented me from backing the 7-2 favourite in handicap company at York nine days ago, instead siding with the Musselburgh runner-up to reverse the form from a more favourable draw in stall 8. The pair finished one-two again, with Jim Goldie’s five-year-old confirming the form with the Quinn runner. He’s now finished in the first three in 12 of his last 13 starts, with the exception – a 16th of 25 in the Ayr Gold Cup – easily excused as he had a terrible draw. The son of Washington DC deserves a crack at Group level, and I like his draw in stall 10 of 11. His patient running style could also be an asset given the likely strong pace and the forecast headwind.
8.35 Windsor – NEWFANGLED (1pt win – 5/2 bet365)
NEWFANGLED was a big eyecatcher at Newbury last time, doing clear best of the prominent racers when a half-length third of 13. He wasn’t helped by switching to challenge on the slowest part of the track either and he was four and half lengths clear of the next prominent racer to finish. Jonny Portman’s hugely consistent four-year now has form figures in cheekpieces of 3121123213 (4-10) and is worth a bet to break his turf duck at the tenth attempt. SERENITY DREAM, an eyecatcher at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting after doing too much too soon into the headwind when trained by Richard Fahey, was only just touched off at Kempton last time on his debut for Tony Carroll and could be the one for the forecast.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.30 Goodwood – UNCLE DON (1pt e/w – 7/1 bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
3.05 Curragh – LETHAL LEVI (1pt win – 17/2 William Hill)
3.30 Haydock – AMERICAN AFFAIR (2pt win – 5/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
8.35 Windsor – NEWFANGLED (1pt win – 5/2 bet365)
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Saturday, 24th May
Andrew’s Angles – Why the London Gold Cup Can Be a Group Race Springboard
There’s a cracking meeting at Newbury on Saturday where the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes takes centre stage. I want to use this week’s column to discuss one of the supporting races – the 1m2f London Gold Cup Handicap. This heritage handicap has often been a springboard to Group-race glory, as we can see from the…
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