Andrew Mount has a whopping seven selections on Saturday 6th September, as he looks to find some winners at Kempton Park, Haydock Park, Wolverhampton and Stratford…
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Posted: 4.07pm, Friday, September 5th
1.35 Kempton – GIAVELLOTTO (1pt win – 11/4 bet365, 5/2 generally)
The Group 3 September Stakes looks a match between last year’s winner Kalpana (the 1-2 favourite) and Marco Botti’s GIAVELLOTTO and, at the prices, I have to side with the six-year-old entire. Full horses are four from five in the past ten renewals of this 1m4f contest (+£8.45 to a £1 level stake at SP) and this one will appreciate the ease in grade after his third place to Jan Breughel and Calandagan in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom where his patient running style left him at a big disadvantage. He’s unbeaten in two starts on the all-weather and was an easy Group 2 winner at Newmarket on his latest start below Group 1 level.
2.05 Kempton – COGITATE (0.5pt e/w – 16/1 generally) & SUPERPOSITION (0.5pt e/w – 11/1 generally)
Four and five-year-old geldings have a fine record in the London Mile Final, landing all of the last ten renewals (from 71 runners) for a profit of £30.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.92, A/E = 2.03). Those who finished in the top four in their prep race were nine from 43 for a profit of £53.75 (expected wins = 3.27, A/E = 2.75). COGITATE qualifies on this angle after keeping on into a close-up 14-1 fourth of 11 under a patient Billy Loughnane ride at Newbury last time. Charles Hills’ four-year-old has yet to win on the all-weather but has only had two runs, finishing second at Southwell before his eye-catching 25-1 fourth in a London Mile qualifier here last November when doing best of those to race prominently. His draw in stall 12 of 14 will be an off-putter for some but wide draws have a very good record in this race and the four and five-year-old geldings drawn in stall 12 or higher are six from 18 for a profit of £60.50.
SUPERPOSITION (stall 13) is another four-year-old gelding with a high draw and is also worth a bet. Ed Dunlop’s son of Sea The Stars failed to settle when seventh of 12 at Yarmouth last time, a run that took his turf score to 0-7. His full record on the all-weather stands at 3112 (2-4), including a wide margin 1m win on his only previous visit to Kempton.
3.35 Haydock – MY MATE ALFIE (0.5pt e/w – 28/1 bet365, 22/1 Hills)
The price has shorted up from the general 33-1 since I tipped MY MATE ALFIE on GG’s Weekend Watch podcast/YouTube channel (free to view/listen – please like and subscribe!) on Thursday afternoon but he’s still worth a small each-way interest. I’m concerned about his high draw and the fact that he’s Irish-trained in a division dominated by the Brits (when the Aussies don’t turn up) but like nine of the last ten Sprint Cup winners he has won in September/October previously (ten of today’s runners fall down on this angle). His full record over today’s 6f trip stands at 233313111522 (4-12), with the sole unplaced effort (fifth) by just a length and a half. Those with access to Sky Bet and Paddy Power might want to play at 18-1 five places, especially if you have best odds guaranteed.
4.07 Haydock – ATOMIC FORCE (1pt win – 17/2 William Hill)
Ed Bethell has a fine record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially those running on turf. Corolla Point’s win here yesterday took the score to ten winners from 22 bets for a profit of £21.45 to a £1 level stake at SP and ATOMIC FORCE, a three-time scorer for Kevin Ryan before a spell in Hong Kong where he won three times at Happy Valley, is the latest qualifier. The six-year-old also fits the trends for the 5f Be Friendly Handicap, being in the top six in the weights and drawn between stalls 1 and 6 (seven of the last ten winners qualified on this angle).
5.40 Wolverhampton – GUERNSEY ANGEL (1pt win – 6/1 bet365)
GUERNSEY ANGEL was very green on her debut at Haydock in early July, finishing a modest 25-1 sixth of ten after blowing the start and failing to settle but she stepped up on that when a 22-1 five-length fourth of seven in a 6f Salisbury maiden next time, displaying good early speed despite hanging to the left. David Evans’ daughter of Harry Angel was sent off at 66-1 for a 20-runner sales race at Newmarket on her latest start where she out-ran her odds to finish a five-length tenth, doing second best of those to race on the near side from their unfavourable low draws. Sixth-placed Anaisa, best of the near side bunch, was backed from 40-1 into 12-1 when landing a Ripon Listed race just 48 hours later and Guernsey Angel was only a length and a half behind that rival. She makes her nursery debut off a mark of just 65 and her breeding suggests that the switch to the all-weather will suit – her sire’s juvenile colts and fillies are 26 from 110 on synthetics for a profit of £60.01 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 15.90, A/E = 1.63).
5.55 Stratford – REDHARC NA SLAIN (1pt e/w – 7/2 bet365)
There’s plenty of early pace on offer in this 2m6.5f handicap chase and it could be worth chancing hold-up performer RADHARC NA SLAINE, the mount of Sean Bowen. The David Rees-trained eight-year-old clocked a fast time when a close second to Grillon De Monty at Worcester last time and the winner has gone in again since. The cheekpieces go on for the first time and that’s been a positive angle for chase progeny of sire Jet Away, with eight winners from 23 runners for a profit of £19.95 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.83, A/E = 2.82). Three of the beaten horses ran second (28-1, 12-1 and 13-2) and two more were third (25-1 and 9-2).
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.35 Kempton – GIAVELLOTTO (1pt win – 11/4 bet365, 5/2 generally)
2.05 Kempton – COGITATE (0.5pt e/w – 16/1 generally) & SUPERPOSITION (0.5pt e/w – 11/1 generally)
3.35 Haydock – MY MATE ALFIE (0.5pt e/w – 28/1 bet365, 22/1 Hills)
4.07 Haydock – ATOMIC FORCE (1pt win – 17/2 William Hill)
5.40 Wolverhampton – GUERNSEY ANGEL (1pt win – 6/1 bet365)
5.55 Stratford – REDHARC NA SLAIN (1pt e/w – 7/2 bet365)
Cogitate
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