After an extraordinary day of shocks at Ascot on Saturday, Andrew Mount seeks to predict the more predictable on Sunday, with two best bets from Kempton and Leopardstown.
Posted: 7.47pm, Saturday, October 18th
4.25 Kempton – LAW OF SUPPLY (1pt win – 9/1 generally)
At the time of writing LAW OF SUPPLY was trading as the outsider of six for this 3m handicap chase but I think he should be much shorter. Kim bailey’s seven-year-old won on his reappearance on the corresponding week last year and followed up at Ascot five weeks later. He went off the boil after, but first time out could be when to catch him and the Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls yard has a cracking record with break-returners at this time of year. Since 2018, backing the chasers that were returning from a break of 150 days or longer would have found 33 winners from 133 bets (25.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £57.81 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 22.56, A/E = 1.46). This month’s two previous qualifiers won (5-2) and finished third (3-1) and his front-running style will be an asset.
5.10 Leopardstown – STORMIE OUTLOOK (0.5pt e/w – 12/1 bet365, 11/1 generally with the other firms paying five places)
STORMIE OUTLOOK was a big eyecatcher at Limerick on June 21st, doing well to finish an 11-1 fourth in a 1m fillies’ handicap after racing in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail. She followed that with a pair of in-the-frame efforts at Roscommon before switching from Edward O’Grady to Andrew Slattery. Sent off at 14-1 for an open handicap at Listowel on her stable debut last month, she finished a promising 14-1 fifth of 15 in first-time cheekpieces when asked to come from further back than ideal on that pace-favouring track. The cut back to 7f in what should be a strongly-run contest looks an interesting move and she’s worth a small each-way play.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
4.25 Kempton – LAW OF SUPPLY (1pt win – 9/1 generally)
5.10 Leopardstown – STORMIE OUTLOOK (0.5pt e/w – 12/1 bet365, 11/1 generally with the other firms paying five places)
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Sunday, 19th October
GG Lucky 15 tips – Kempton and Leopardstown picks for Sunday 19th October
There’s horse racing on Sunday 19th October from Kempton Park, Sedgefield and Limerick over the jumps, while the solitary flat fixture comes from Leopardstown. Our GG Lucky 15 tips for the day come from Kempton and Leopardstown, so check out our four best bets here… 2.16 Kempton – ISKAR D’AIRY (1pt win – 2/1 generally)…
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