Our top tipster Andrew Mount aims to end the week on a high and picks out his best bets for Sunday 6th October, as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the feature race at Longchamp…
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Posted: 7.18am, Sunday, October 6th
2.05 Longchamp – WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (1pt ew – 18/1 bet365, 16-1 generally) & MAKAROVA (1pt ew – 16/1 generally)
Two runners interest me in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye – WASHINGTON HEIGHTS and MAKAROVA. The former was drawn away from the fastest strip of ground when sixth to Bradsell in the Nunthorpe at York on his penultimate start but showed good early speed to lead the centre group. Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old got closer to Bradsell in the Flying Five at the Curragh when missing a beat at the start in first-time cheekpieces, recovering to lead down the stands’ side and doing third best of his group (fifth overall). His trainer/jockey have plenty of ‘previous’ in this race, including with Glass Slippers at a big price in this race in 2019 (those with long memories may recall that he was tipped in this column), the headgear is left off today and he’s well drawn in stall 4.
Makarova was poorly drawn when finishing well into sixth of 18 behind Highfield Princess in this race last year and has since improved for the application of cheekpieces. Her record in the headgear over today’s 5f trip reads 21373 (1-5), with the sole unplaced effort from a bad draw in the Nunthorpe. Ed Walker’s five-year-old fared second best of the centre bunch when a 28-1 third of 18 to Bradsell and Believing at the Curragh last time and has a fair draw in stall 8.
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3.20 Longchamp – MQSE DE SEVIGNE (0.5pt ew – 25-1 generally, Sky Bet paying five places)
Stall 16 is far from ideal for MQSE DE SEVIGNE in the Prix de lA’rc de Triomphe, hence the small stake, but this hold-up performer will be dropped in from a wide draw and, if she gets luck in-running, she could cause a huge upset. Andre Fabre’s mare is wonderfully consistent, recording form figures of 31192272221121111 (8-17), with excuses for the two unplaced efforts – she found the 1m trip too short when ninth of 15 (beaten by just over three lengths) in the French 1000 Guineas in 2022 and was shuffled back/had nowhere to go when seventh of 16 in the Prix de l’Opera at this meeting later the same year. Those remain her only runs in fields of more than ten runners, so perhaps the big field will again be to her detriment, but I was impressed with her win in the Jean Romanet at Deauville last time as she was the only winner on the day to come from off the pace (albeit, she started as a very short-priced favourite).
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
2.05 Longchamp – WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (1pt ew – 18/1 bet365, 16-1 generally) & MAKAROVA (1pt ew – 16/1 generally)
3.20 Longchamp – MQSE DE SEVIGNE (0.5pt ew – 25-1 generally, Sky Bet paying five places)
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Always Back an In-Form Filly in the Autumn
One racing cliché that’s often rolled out at this time of year is to “side with fillies in form”. However, you’ll rarely, if ever, hear a pundit or journalist back this up with data so I thought I’d take a closer look to see if this is a profitable punting angle. The following table shows…
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