Andrew Mount kickstarts the Newmarket July meeting with five top tips on Thursday.
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Posted: 9.36pm, Wednesday, July 9th
1.50 Newmarket – NIGHTIME DANCER (1pt win – 9/2 generally)
Those runners who prepped over 1m5f or further are 0-20 in the past ten renewals of the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy, including 0-17 for the ones who ran in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Four of today’s five runners took in that Ascot contest on their latest start and I’m happy to go with the process of elimination bet – NIGHTIME DANCER. Richard Hannon’s colt has yet to win on turf but there was plenty to like about his 100-1 eighth of 18 to Lambourn in last month’s Derby at Epsom, a run that suggested today’s stiff 1m5f should suit.
2.25 Newmarket – DO OR DO NOT (1pt win – 7/1 generally)
Once-raced individuals have a poor recent record in the July Stakes, with the 12 qualifiers in the past ten years recording form figures of 936363592543 (0-12). Nine of those started at single-figure odds, including a 4-6 favourite who was third, and lack of experience could count against BRUSSELS, JEL PEPPER and ZAVATERI. I’d rather side with DO OR DO NOT, who clocked a good speed figure when chasing home, the impressive Gstaad in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and doing best of those in the far side group. Ed Walker’s, an 80-1 shot that day, went close behind the short-priced favourite Tadej at York on his penultimate start and, though a maiden, doesn’t look out of place in this company.
3.00 Newmarket – PRINCE OF INDIA (1pt e/w – 15/2 generally with the firms paying five places)
There’s a daft amount of early pace in this 6f heritage handicap and, although Newmarket’s July Course typically favours early pace, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that the race will be teed up for a closer. Marco Botti’s colt took his record in a tongue-tie to 1212 (2-4) when chasing home Hucklesbrook (re-opposes today) in a hot 6f handicap at Leicester on his most recent start, form that has been well advertised. The winner followed up at York the fourth (Santa Savana) ran second over 7f before awarded a race over the same trip at Haydock, fifth-home Crestofdistinction (also runs here) bolted up at Wolverhampton on his next outing, sixth-placed Sea Baaeed was just behind Santa Savana at Haydock and Arabian Sun (also runs here), over four lengths back in eighth place, was a 9-1 Windsor winner on his next start. That was Prince Of India’s first run below 7f and there could be more improvement to come. It’s also worth noting that the Leicester race produced last year’s winner Sergeant Wilko (advised in this column).
3.35 Newmarket – EL CORDOBES (1pt win – 6/1 888sport, 11/2 generally) & ARABIAN CROWN (1pt win – 8/1 888sport, BetVictor, Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
Horses who prepped at Ascot are just two from 32 across the past ten renewals of the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes for a loss of £16.67 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.33, A/E = 0.38) and the front three in the market – GHOSTWRITER, PALLDIUM and WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE all fall into this category. It’s also been a good race for pacesetters, yet that trio are likely to be ridden with restraint. There are only two other runners, Charlie Appleby’s EL CORDOBES and ARABIAN CROWN, and I’m happy to back the pair. In the past ten years, the runner(s) ranked one on Proform’s pace ratings (i.e. most likely to take the lead) have a five from 11 record for a profit of £44.83 and the pair share that honour. EL CORDOBES will find this track more to his liking after a modest third of four at York last time, while ARABIAN CROWN has been gelded since his sixth place in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown and is four from five in Britain since his racecourse debut.
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Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.50 Newmarket – NIGHTIME DANCER (1pt win – 9/2 generally)
2.25 Newmarket – DO OR DO NOT (1pt win – 7/1 generally)
3.00 Newmarket – PRINCE OF INDIA (1pt e/w – 15/2 generally with the firms paying five places)
3.35 Newmarket – EL CORDOBES (1pt win – 6/1 888sport, 11/2 generally) & ARABIAN CROWN (1pt win – 8/1 888sport, BetVictor, Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
El Cordobes
Arabian CrownAndrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Thursday, 10th July
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