There is Listed action at Bath among the seven Thursday cards. Here are Andrew Mount’s best bets on the day from Southwell…
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Posted: 7:50pm, Wednesday, October 9th
7.00 Southwell – OSCAR DOODLE (0.5pt ew – 12/1 bet365)
OSCAR DOODLE was a frustrating so-and-so when with Brian Ellison, as his connections kept making the running with him at Newcastle where such tactics are rarely effective on the round course (trips of 1m2f or further). The five-year-old is two from two at Chelmsford but they persisted in sending him to Gosforth Park rather than shell out for the diesel money to Essex. A change to hold-up tactics saw him finish second by half a length in a fast time at Newcastle in April on his latest all-weather outing and while we might not see the best of him until he returns to Polytrack, he’s worth a small interest on his debut for Olly Williams. His new handler has run ten stable switchers at this venue, and they included a 16-1 winner as well as placed horses at 50-1 and 9-1.
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8.30 Southwell – MISS BRAZEN (1pt ew – 9/1 generally with the firms paying four places)
All of MISS BRAZEN’s 21 starts have taken place on turf but her breeding suggests that the switch to the all-weather could bring about improvement. Progeny of her sire, Brazen Beau, have an 11.92% strike-rate on the all-weather (119 winners from 995 runners), as compared to just 8.52% on turf (86 winners from 1009 runners) and her three half-siblings to run on the all-weather – Tadleel (six wins), Second Collection (three wins) and Harbour Project (one win) – were all successful at least once. Mick & David Easterby’s four-year-old was only fifth at Redcar last time but raced wider than ideal and the badly-drawn ninth, Yazaman, has given that form a minor boost. On recent evidence, her stall 3 of 12 could prove advantageous and she’s an each-way price. At the time of writing she was 10-1 with the firms playing three places (e.g. William Hill) but I’d rather take a point shorter and have an extra place with the likes of Sky Bet and Betfred.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
7.00 Southwell – OSCAR DOODLE (0.5pt ew – 12/1 bet365)
8.30 Southwell – MISS BRAZEN (1pt ew – 9/1 generally with the firms paying four places)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Thursday, 10th October 2024.
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