Newmarket’s July meeting gets underway on Thursday. With top class action throughout the rest of the week, Andrew Mount goes in search of winners with his best bets.
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Posted: 2:05pm, Wednesday, July 10th
3.00 Newmarket – SERGEANT WILKO (1pt ew – 11/1 William Hill, bet365)
Runners who prepped over 7f+ are 0-39 in this race in the past ten years and those who ran at Ascot have a 0-25 record. Throw these two angles together and we can rule out 11 of the 16 runners, leaving a shortlist of Imperial Guard, Sergeant Wilko, Aramram, Elmonjed and Tropical Island. That might be an over-simplistic view, but it gives us a starting point. The other fascinating angle with this 6f heritage handicap is running style. Horses ridden patiently are one from 94 in the last ten renewals (-£86.00 to a £1 level stake at SP), front-runners are two from 17 (+£41.00) and prominent racers are seven from 69 (+£32.50). A top-two finish last time out (six of the ten winners) has also helped us to pinpoint the winner and seven of the ten were in the front two in the market in their prep race. SERGEANT WILKO qualifies on all angles, making the running when scoring with something up his sleeve over 6f on good to soft ground at Leicester last time (3-1 favourite). He’s now won his last two starts over a stiff 6f and his stall 9 draw looks useful, given that the majority of previous winners raced centre to far side.
5.20 Newmarket – HELM ROCK (1pt win – 10/1 William Hill)
HELM ROCK’s recent form figures are uninspiring (8th, 11th, 7th) but all took place in Class 2 company (he’s just one from 12 in that grade) and he was unsuited to pressing the early pace under Silvestre De Sousa when seventh of 12 at Newcastle last time. The Daniel & Claire Kubler-trained six-year-old has won five of his 13 starts in Class 3 or lower company when he’s had at least two runs in the past three months, including four of his last seven, and son of Pivotal is better equipped than most to handle the slow conditions. David Egan takes over and there are three front-runners to give him a good tow into the race, including Urban Sprawl, drawn two stalls away.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
3.00 Newmarket – SERGEANT WILKO (1pt ew – 11/1 William Hill, bet365)
5.20 Newmarket – HELM ROCK (1pt win – 10/1 William Hill)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Thursday, 11th July 2024.
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