The Craven at Newmarket takes place in the build-up to the 2000 Guineas on Thursday. Andrew Mount has picked out five selections on the day.
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Posted: 4.15pm, Wednesday, April 17th
3.00 Newmarket – COMMANCHE FALLS (1pt ew – 13/2 bet365, 6/1 William Hill)
COMMANCHE FALLS went desperately close in this race 12 months ago (second by a head at 20-1) when tipped in this column and I’m happy to go in again. The Michael Dods-trained seven-year-old loves an ‘away day’ from his County Durham stable, landing seven of his 18 starts (second, third or fourth in six of the other) when travelling more than 100 miles from home for a profit of £52.83 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 1.98, A/E = 3.53). His high draw (stall 11 of 14) could be an advantage on Wednesday’s evidence and with most bookies offering four places he’s going to be hard to kick out of the frame.
4.25 Cheltenham – SOMESPRING SPECIAL (2.5pt win – 9/4 bet365)
4.25 Cheltenham – FOUND ON (0.5pt win – 4/1 bet365)
SOMESPRING SPECIAL is well named, as she tends to peak at this time of year. Anthony Honeyball’s six-year-old lined up in a 2m3.5f handicap chase at Plumpton last Sunday on the back of a Wincanton pulled-up in December but clearly appreciated having the sun on her back, sauntering to victory at odds of 10-1 off a handicap mark of 112. Her record from March to May now reads 3111 (3-4), with the defeat by just four lengths when 33-1 for a novices’ hurdle at Wincanton. The pair that beat her that day are now rated 140 and 123, suggesting that she’s well-in under a penalty this afternoon.
FOUND ON disappointed when I tipped her at Kempton last month – pulling up at 12-1 – but she still has a fine record in the March to October period, recording form figures of 2F219111111P (7-12) for a profit of £17.97 to a £1 level stake at SP and she’s worth a saver. Martin Keighley’s mare will also appreciate dropping down from Class 2 to Class 3 level and taking on her own sex again (her record in the warmer month when racing in mares’ company stands at 2111 (3-4)).
5.20 Newmarket – FARRH TO SHY (1pt ew – 18/1 William Hill)
The 1m Lincoln trip on soft ground was no help to George Margarson’s FARRH TO SHY when she reappeared at Doncaster last month, and she’ll be much happier back at 7f on fast ground. Five of her six career wins have come over a straight 7f on turf (the other over 6f) and she’s won second time out n two of the three seasons that she’s been racing. The six-year-old’s two previous runs on the Rowley Mile produced a win and short head second and she’s sure to be finishing to good effect under Jamie Spencer.
6.00 Chelmsford – SALAMANCA LAD (1pt win – 4/1 bet365)
The progressive stable of Daniel & Claire Kubler has a good record with horses they take over from other trainers, though not necessarily at the first time of asking. The strike-rate improves from 13.9% to 18.9% from first to second run and it’s interesting to see SALAMANCA LAD, a close-up fourth over 1m at Southwell on his recent stable debut, upped to 1m2f for his second start. The three-year-old never raced beyond 6f when trained by Richard Fahey and the extra distance could bring about further improvement.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
3.00 Newmarket – COMMANCHE FALLS (1pt ew – 13/2 bet365, 6/1 William Hill)
4.25 Cheltenham – SOMESPRING SPECIAL (2.5pt win – 9/4 bet365)
4.25 Cheltenham – FOUND ON (0.5pt win – 4/1 bet365)
5.20 Newmarket – FARRH TO SHY (1pt ew – 18/1 William Hill)
6.00 Chelmsford – SALAMANCA LAD (1pt win – 4/1 bet365)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Thursday, 18th April 2024.
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