Andrew Mount has a brace of selections for the racing on Thursday 9th October, as he heads to Ayr in the afternoon and Newcastle in the evening for his best bets of the day.
Posted: 6.45pm, Wednesday, October 8th
2.50 Ayr – GREEN VALENTINE (1pt win – 5/1 generally)
AHAMOMENT dominates the market on the back of his five-and-a-half length romp in a 7f handicap at Musselburgh on October 1st but he was in the first two throughout and the track was favouring early pace more than ever that day, with the round-course (7f+) winners on the card described by the Racing Post as…
Raced in second, led going easily over 2f out
Started quickly, made all
Made all, set steady pace
Pressed leader
Prominent on inner, pressed leader and going easily 2f out
…and I’m taking the view that he was flattered. Of greater interest is GREEN VALENTINE, who impressed me when scoring against the draw bias at Hamilton last time. Those who challenged closest to the stands’ side rail enjoyed an advantage in sprints at that meeting on September 22, with the winners (once adjusted for non-runners) drawn in stalls 5 of 5, 4 of 5, 7 of 8, 7 of 9 and 2 of 6. The last of those was 25-1 shot Green Valentine, who was switched to challenge in the centre of the track. Alan Brown’s four-year-old had failed to beat a rival in three runs on the all-weather since joining her current handler but clearly appreciated the return to turf and her best run for Kevin Coleman in Ireland – a half-length second of 14 in a 6f Cork handicap – also came in the autumn. The step up to 7f is an unknown but she could be well ahead of her mark and is worth chancing.
8.00 Newcastle – ABOVE (1pt win – 15/2 bet365)
ABOVE ran respectably at Yarmouth last time, going down by two lengths in fifth, and has generously been dropped 2lb. Robert Cowell’s veteran has a superior strike-rate on the all-weather (five wins from 27 starts, as opposed to two from 28) and will appreciate the return to Newcastle where his record in tonight’s Class 5 grade reads 161 (2-3). Stall 1 is often regarded by TV pundits as a bad draw on the straight track (distances of 5f-1m) at Newcastle but that’s not reflected in recent results. Since the beginning of 2023 simply backing all stall 1 runners in handicaps of six or more runners would have found 98 winners from 762 bets (12.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £203.03 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£614.65 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). The booking of the excellent Ray Dawson is another boost, as his record on the all-weather when not riding for boss Roger Varian stands at 79 winners from 615 runners (12.9%) for a profit of £113.30 (+£277.14 at BSP).
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
2.50 Ayr – GREEN VALENTINE (1pt win – 5/1 generally)
8.00 Newcastle – ABOVE (1pt win – 15/2 bet365)
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Thursday, 9th October
GG Lucky 15 tips – Four selections for Thursday 9th October
Bath hosts Listed action on Thursday among six British and Irish meetings in all. GG tipster Joe Napier goes to that track and Ayr for GG’s Lucky 15 tips on the day. Back GG’s daily racing selections with Sky Bet’s new customer offer of Bet 5p Get £30 In Free Bets. 2.30 Bath – SIEGE…
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