Our resident tipster Andrew Mount heads to Kempton Park’s all-weather meeting on Wednesday 8th January and he has a solitary selection for the 5:30pm race.
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Posted: 4:05pm, Tuesday, January 7th
5.30 Kempton – PRIVATE ISLAND (1pt win – 14/1 bet365)
The Sir Mark Prescott-trained PRIVATE ISLAND was sent off at just 5-1 for her debut in a 7f fillies’ maiden at Salisbury in mid-August but was given a patient ride on a track that was favouring early pace. The winner, 2-1 favourite Dear Cat, made all, while the next four finishers were described by the Racing Post as “prominent”, “in touch with leaders”, “in touch with leaders” and “prominent”. She was beaten by eight and a half lengths, but it was a solid effort in the circumstances, especially given her sire’s poor record with newcomers. Progeny of Twilight Son are just seven from 224 on their debuts (3.1% strike-rate) for a loss of £175.59 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 12.91, A/E = 0.54). We wouldn’t make money by backing the same horses at the second time of asking (24 from 213, 11.3%, -£77.62) but this was 5.33 more winners than expected. Backing only those who finished in the top six in their debut found 22 winners from 117 bets (18.8%) for a small profit (+£2.98), including two from six for those owned by Cheveley Park Stud (1-1 on the all-weather). Private Island’s full brother Twilight Romance won on his second career start after showing promise on debut and she looks well drawn in stall 4 for this restricted novice contest.
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Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
5.30 Kempton – PRIVATE ISLAND (1pt win – 14/1 bet365)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Wednesday, 8th January 2025
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