All eyes may be on the Epsom Derby this Saturday, but there’s always a superb supporting card and one of the betting highlights is the Dash run over five furlongs. Our resident tipster Andrew Mount has taken a look at the stats around the sprint handicap in his latest Mythbusters piece…
The 5f “Dash” run at Epsom on Derby Day is one of my favourite races of the year and much pre-race discussion ahead of this Saturday’s renewal will revolve around the draw.
This race usually attracts a huge field, and a high draw, close to the near side rail, is perceived to be an advantage. However, a glance at the draw positions of recent winners suggests that is not the case…
Year / Draw of first five finishers / Running style of winner
2023 / 5, 7, 2, 8 and 4 of 20 / midfield in centre of group
2022 / 10, 2, 4, 9 and 17 of 20 / made virtually all at good pace
2021 / 10, 16, 14, 15 and 4 of 16 / raced near side, close up
2020 / no race because of COVID-19
2019 / 1, 8, 6, 13 and 15 of 19 / made all
2018 / 16, 12, 1, 14 and 19 of 20 / soon switched right to race near stands’ rail
2017 / 1, 9, 11, 4 and 10 of 19 / pressed leading pair until led 2f out
2016 / 14, 16, 17, 15 and 12 of 17 / chased leaders until led 2f out
2015 / 1, 7, 18, 5 and 11 of 20 / held up in touch in midfield
…perming the four highest drawn runners in 2016 would have seen us find the first four home but it has been far from plain sailing for the high draws since then. Speedier horses can break smartly and get across to the rail and there have been occasions when crowding has made life difficult for the high draws, allowing those who get daylight down the centre of the track to claim victory.
One surprising angle is how well the two lowest drawn runners have done, with three winners (33-1, 25-1 and 16-1) and three places (50-1, 16-1 and 13-2) in the past eight years. Ornate (stall 1 of 19) put his early speed to good use when taking the 2019 renewal at 33-1 and he never even attempted to come all the way across to the stands’ rail. Mountain Peak (stall 2 of 20), tipped in my GG column, broke my heart in 2022 when beaten by a head into second place at 50-1and dismissing runners based on their draw in this race is a dangerous game.
In the past eight years we could have simply backed all 151 runners and made a profit at SP (+£14.00 to a £1 level stake at SP, +£78.34 on the Tote) and it could play to get creative in this year’s renewal. Studying the running style of the participants might be more revealing than the draw, with the last-time-out pace abbreviation of those 151 runners as follows (L = led, P= prominent, H = held up)…
…those ridden patiently in their latest start have a terrible recent record in the “Dash”, scoring just once from 70 runners in the past eight renewals. Other angles to look at are jockeys – those claiming an allowance of at least 3lb were 0-23 – and the sex of the runners – fillies/mares were 0-11. At the time of writing the final declarations weren’t known but I expect NIGHT ON EARTH to be top of my shortlist after his scintillating course and distance success on April 23rd when breaking smartly from stall 3 of 12 and getting across to the rail. The Ian Williams-trained six-year-old has since run a blinder at Chester, finishing a close-up fifth despite being stuck out wide in stall 11 of 11.
Trainers to note on this angle include Richard Fahey (ten from 25), Ed Dunlop (eight from 13), James Tate (six from 11), Rod Millman (six from ten), Richard Hughes (six from ten), Paul & Oliver Cole (six from ten) and Nigel Tinkler (six from eight).
Epsom Derby Trends – Who the Stats Point to in British Racing’s Flagship Event
The Epsom Derby is rapidly approaching. With time ticking down until the race gets underway, Dave Young has analysed the best statistics and trends to pick out three horses who should run well. The Epsom Derby is the absolute pinnacle of Flat racing and although we’re missing this year’s 2,000 Guineas winner, we’re hopefully still…
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