One racing cliché that’s often rolled out at this time of year is to “side with fillies in form”. However, you’ll rarely, if ever, hear a pundit or journalist back this up with data so I thought I’d take a closer look to see if this is a profitable punting angle.
The following table shows the record of all fillies/mares in turf Flat races in Britan/Ireland since 2016…
Backing them blind would have sent you skint, with profit/loss to Starting Price (P/L to SP) showing a loss in every month, though a profit was returned at Betfair SP in April, August and November. What is most interesting about the above results is that the WAX score (winners against expected winners, based on their odds) was positive for all months except March, giving an actual winners over expected winners ratio (A/E) greater than 1.0.
Now lets examine how in-form fillies/mares did by splitting all the runners by their finishing position last time out (Fin Pos LTO)…
The first row shows racecourse debutantes (which is why they don’t have a Fin Pos LTO figure) as well as foreign imports who won’t have an entry in my database. The second row (‘1’) shows last time out winners and it’s interesting to note that they underperformed as a group, producing a WAX score of -36.27 (i.e. the 2331 winners from 14103 bets was 36.27 fewer than the market expected) giving an A/E ratio of 0.98.The bottom rows which feature finishing positions of 245+ have been abbreviated as follows (245 = disqualified, 246 = carried out, 247 = unseated rider, 248 = slipped up, 249 = brought down, 250 = fell, 251 = void race, 252 = refused to race, 253= refused, 254 = pulled up, 255 = ran out). Most of these were reverting to the Flat from hurdles or fences.
Let’s take a closer look at those 14103 last time out winners and split them by month…
Generally, they performed below market expectations but there could be something in the autumn angle, as they had a positive WAX score in September and October. Grouping last time out winning fillies/mares now running in September/October in a turf Flat race in Britan/Ireland gives these results…
It’s still a loss at SP but a profit of £130.06 was achieved at Betfair SP after 2% commission (+3.85% on turnover). Had we only backed the SP favourites a very small profit (+£12.65 at SP, +1.84% on turnover) was realised (+£69.50 at Betfair SP, +10.10% on turnover)…
In fillies’ handicaps only this angle produced a healthy profit of £25.12 at SP (+£41.73 at Betfair SP)…
We get the chance to test this in the 4.35 at Yarmouth today (Tuesday, September 17th) where Saeed Bin Surror’s SUMMER OF LOVE, successful at Epsom last time, was trading at around even-money for the 6f fillies’ handicap.
This system – SP favourites in fillies’ handicaps on turf in September/October, who won last time – also shows a profit with horses who finished second last time out, giving the following results…
PRESENCE (a best-priced 9-4 at time of writing but 15-8 with most firms) looks likely to go off as the market leader in the 4.30 at Punchestown today on the back of her Galway runner-up effort last month. Anyone for an across the card win double?
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