It is always worth listening to Andrew Mount’s wisdom, but after a sensational run of form over the weekend, his latest Myth Busters is especially important to heed. This week, he looks at nursery handicaps for two-year-olds and asks if you should regularly side with the top-weight.
When I started to become interested in horse racing in the late 80s/early 90s one of the common perceptions among punters concerned top weights in nurseries (handicaps for two-year-olds) with the comment ‘always back top weights’ often voiced among the betting shop fraternity, ‘they’re the best horse in the race’. This line would be wheeled out after every top weight won and, thirty years later, it is still gets mentioned on racing TV and radio.
But what would happen had we bet all the top weights in nursery handicaps in Britain, turf and all-weather, since the beginning of 2016? I was expecting the answer to be ‘we’d have lost a fortune’ but the results surprised me….
Of the 2137 qualifiers, 654 won (30.6% strike-rate) for a loss of just £57.91 to a £1 level stake at SP (-2.71% on turnover). We could have turned that loss into a profit of £673.46 by taking the best evening price (with a best-odds guaranteed concession) the evening before racing (the column named ‘EP’ above) and a profit of £94.85 (after 2& commission) by backing all the qualifiers at Betfair SP.
The results weren’t so good in the past two seasons, with the WAX score (winners against expected) falling below zero but we’d have still made money by getting on early…
I’ve studied the results by finishing position, last time out, days since last run, jockey claim and multiple other angles but there was one that stuck out – foaling month….
Early foals, especially those born in January/February, enjoy an advantage over their younger peers in early-season two-year-old races but by the time of the first nursery handicap in July the younger juveniles have caught up physically. Backing top weights in nurseries, foaled in April or later, would have found 237 winners from 709 bets (33.4% strike-rate) since 2016 for a profit of £52.92 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Trainers to note on this angle include Richard Fahey (ten from 25), Ed Dunlop (eight from 13), James Tate (six from 11), Rod Millman (six from ten), Richard Hughes (six from ten), Paul & Oliver Cole (six from ten) and Nigel Tinkler (six from eight).
Epsom Derby Trends – Who the Stats Point to in British Racing’s Flagship Event
The Epsom Derby is rapidly approaching. With time ticking down until the race gets underway, Dave Young has analysed the best statistics and trends to pick out three horses who should run well. The Epsom Derby is the absolute pinnacle of Flat racing and although we’re missing this year’s 2,000 Guineas winner, we’re hopefully still…
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