Having recently discussed the differences in trainer form when a stable passes on to a member of family, Andrew Mount looks into a similar question for this week’s myth busters: can a trainer change their methods to gain further success?
Recently, I discussed how a tactical change in the Charlie Johnston yard – more of his horses are now ridden patiently than in previous years – has had a detrimental effect and I want to concentrate on another trainer who has gone the opposite way.
There was an interesting conversation on William Hill racing radio on Monday concerning the trainer Jim Goldie, who had mentioned to one of the pundits that his yard’s current good form was down to a change of race tactics, with more of his runners being asked to race prominently. This is certainly reflected in the running styles of his Flat turf runners this year (up to and including the results by close of play on Monday 22nd July)…
…only five of his 25 winners (from 115 runners, 4.35% strike-rate) were given the Proform pace abbreviation ‘H’ (held up), whereas front-runners (‘L’) had a 42.86% strike-rate thanks to six winners from 14 runners and prominent racers (‘P’) were 14 from 60 (23.33%). These figures are wildly different to his 2024 all-weather runners…
…14 of his 15 all-weather winners came from off the pace, albeit most of those were at Newcastle where patient tactics are most effective.
In 2023, Goldie’s Flat turf runners who led or raced prominently also showed a profit at SP…
Looking back to 2017, the strike-rate for prominent racers was only 6.33% and there’s clearly been a deliberate change in recent years. I can hear some pro-punters out there laughing, as it’s common knowledge that front-runners have a better strike-rate than prominent racers, who in turn have a better record than hold-up horses, but the message has certainly caught on where the Jim Goldie yard is concerned. Recent changes to the whip rules have also made life more difficult for runners ridden patiently, plus, with the average field size declining in recent years, it’s easier for runners to make all as they’re likely to face pressure for the early lead. So far this year, simply backing any Goldie runner on the Flat (turf only) who made the running in its latest start would have found four winners from 14 bets for a profit of £15.13 to a £1 level stake at SP, with those who finished in the top four last time out winning four from eight for a profit of £21.13.
One trainer who still seems insistent of his horses being ridden patiently is James Fanshawe – only one of his 108 Flat turf runners this year has attempted to make all. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, he’s only sent out 57 winners from 470 runners in this sphere (12.13% strike-rate) and backing them blind would have returned a loss of £135.22 to a £1 level stake at SP (-28.77% on turnover). Laying them all at Betfair SP would have made a 10.47% profit (after 2% commission). Should we continue to oppose his runners for the remainder of the season or, like Jim Goldie, can a leopard change its spots?
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