With Christmas approaching we can expect any well backed winner, especially from a small yard, to be followed by comments from punters and pundits along the lines of “they got the Christmas money for the stable there”. The assumption being that owners and stable staff have had a good bet on the winner to “pay for Christmas”. I want to use this article to examine gambled-on horses to discover whether more of them win at this time of year and which yards, if any, specialise in landing a touch over the festive period.
In the past five Decembers (2019-2023) 6138 horses ran in handicaps (jumps and all-weather combined) in Britain during the month of December whose Betfair SP (BSP) was shorter than the available odds with bet365 at 8.30pm the evening before racing, referred to as Evening Price (EP) in the Proform database. Backing all the qualifiers would have found 1061 winners (17.29% strike-rate) but returned a loss of £930.01 to a £1 level stake at SP (-£371.80 at Betfair SP). However, had we taken that evening price with bet365 we’d have won £2,263.93 to a £1 level stake (with a best odds guaranteed concession). The Proform software also records two bet365 early prices on the day of racing – BP (Breakfast price, 7.30am) and MP (Morning Price, 10.30am). All these price points are shown in the table below…
Had we backed these ‘steamers’ at bet365’s Breakfast Price (+£1,948.36) or Morning Price (+£1,138.31) we’d still have made a healthy profit but obviously we don’t know the Betfair SP until the race is over.
The strike-rates were remarkably similar, all hovering around the 17% mark, across the three race types covered – handicap hurdles, handicap chases and all-weather handicaps…
Sorting the trainers involved by WAX score (Winners Against Expected) from highest to lowest gives the following results (WAX score of 2.0 or higher only)…
…all the trainers represented in the above list were profitable to back blind at SP and Betfair SP (after 2% commission), even if you didn’t have the luxury of a bet365 with best odds guaranteed. Monitoring the Betfair prices close to the off time will allow is to make an educated guess as to whether the BSP is going to be lower than the bet365 evening price and following the above yards could pay dividends over the next few weeks.
The handicap ‘steamers’ whose Betfair SP was lower tha bet365’s evening, breakfast and morning prices won 742 of their 4008 December starts from 2019 to 2023 though again showed a loss at SP and Betfair SP….
The trainers with WAX scores of 2.0 or higher were as follows and, again, all made a profit at SP and Betfair SP…
Can these December ‘steamers’ be classed as ‘Christmas gambles’ or is this just part and parcel of British racing that happens day in and day out? Looking at November over a slightly longer period (2019-2024), to include last month, the ‘steamers’ whose Betfair SP was lower than all of evening, breakfast and morning bet365 prices enjoyed a 22.77% strike-rate and recorded a big profit if you were on at early prices…
…the figures for February were similar, suggesting that gambles are going on all the time and not lreserved for Christmas. Rather than trying to predict them perhaps we should ook at trainers who typically do well at this time of year. I’ve already discussed Venetia Williams’ great record with handicap chasers in November in a previous column and that system can be followed into December, with the results this century as follows….
…the yard’s handicap hurdler also do well in December, though returned a profit of +2.83% on turnover this century (siding only with those aged seven or younger who had raced within the past six weeks improves the strike-rate and profitability).
Rebecca Menzies could be another handler to keep on side this month, with her handicap hurdlers/chasers doing exceptionally well…
Jane Williams is another trainer with a useful record with handicap hurdlers/chasers in December, scoring with 14 of her 88 runners since 2018 (after Despereaux struck at Ludlow today – Wednesday, December 4th) for a profit of more than £20.
Summary
Christmas gambles exist but horses are winning well backed in British jumps/AW handicaps all year round and the strike-rate in December is ninth worst if we split by month over the 2019-2023 period. Those with a fully functioning bet365 account might still be able to make money by taking a Breakfast Price (BP) at 7.30am about a handicapper that has shortened overnight but the best angle might be to side with certain trainers – those listed in the main article are of interest and those who want a smaller list might want to narrow it down to Rebecca Menzies, Jane Williams and Venetia Williams for the remainder of the month.
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